MD 0955 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SE CO…FAR SW KS…WRN OK PANHANDLE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT TUE JUN 04 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...FAR SW KS...WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 042040Z - 042215Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MCD AREA. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING NWD INTO SE CO WHERE WINDS ARE BACKED WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. IN RESPONSE...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F ACROSS SERN CO WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN PLACE ACROSS SE CO WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH CELLS THAT OBTAIN ROTATION. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS CELLS MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE SFC-TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 30 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 06/04/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37260411 36950364 36470321 36340251 36690171 37270145 37820145 38570200 39370323 39520385 39470435 39260472 38760516 38100516 37580487 37260411
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0955.html
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