MD 0967 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 262… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0967
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Areas affected...portions of central and east Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262...
Valid 102255Z - 110030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262
continues.
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms capable of large hail to 2.5
inches and severe gusts to 65 mph will remain possible the next few
hours.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercell thunderstorms is ongoing along
an outflow boundary draped across northern into eastern TX. This
activity is expected to continue shifting east/southeast through the
evening. Some potential for upscale development into a southeastward
propagating bow is possible as storms interact over the next 1-2
hours. However, this remains uncertain given a lack of stronger
low-level jet development. Nevertheless, consolidating outflows amid
steep low-level lapse rates may support a continued risk for
damaging gusts into this evening. Effective shear magnitudes greater
than 40 kt and strong instability also will continue to support
organized, intense cells capable of large/very large hail for
another few hours.
An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm also may develop across
north Texas to the north of the outflow boundary and near a weak
surface low closer to the Red River, and just north of WW 262. The
airmass across this area has recovered quite a bit with surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE approaching 2500-3000 J/kg. If
a cell can develop and become sustained, an isolated risk of large
hail would accompany this activity for an hour or two this evening.
..Leitman.. 06/10/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32889841 33069830 33509780 33689754 33769728 33739678
33629639 33449630 33079623 32549607 32159557 31689450
31469430 30929453 30639484 30719617 30799688 30989751
31139810 31429834 32299841 32709843 32889841
