MD 0977 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 265…266… FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR…NORTHERN MS…WESTERN TO MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0977 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern AR...northern MS...western to Middle TN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265...266... Valid 112143Z - 112315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265, 266 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for damaging gusts and large hail is expected to increase over the next 1-2 hours from parts of eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi into western and Middle Tennessee. DISCUSSION...Mostly discrete cellular convection will continue to shift east the next few hours. Recent radar trends have shown increasing intensity in this activity, especially over eastern AR and western TN, with more modest intensification toward Middle TN. These storms will continue to shift into moderate to strong instability over the next few hours. Steep to very steep low-level lapse rates are in place downstream of this ongoing activity with MLCAPE values ranging from 1500 J/kg across Middle TN to 3000 J/kg further west. Vertical shear remains favorable for organized convection, though is somewhat lower over Middle TN and becomes stronger with western extent into northern MS. VWP data from NQA also shows a bit more elongated hodographs compared to the hodograph at OHX as well, suggesting some better potential for large hail. Overall this environment should support increasing potential for large hail and damaging gusts over the next couple hours. With time, potential exists for some upscale development into bowing clusters via storm interactions and consolidating outflows. ..Leitman.. 06/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 36498615 36388590 36188577 35948580 35548612 35128720 34508881 34118979 34059091 34119137 34289167 34539172 34879151 35219096 35578989 36048814 36528679 36528655 36498615