MD 0978 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 267… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO…NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO…THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
Mesoscale Discussion 0978
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023
Areas affected...Portions of southeast Colorado...northeast New
Mexico...the western Oklahoma Panhandle and far northwest Texas
Panhandle.
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267...
Valid 112206Z - 112330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe weather threat, which is primarily large to
very large hail, will persist through the evening.
DISCUSSION...Strengthening low-level upslope flow (1km deep per PUX
VWP) has led to the development of numerous thunderstorms along the
Colorado Front Range. The strongest of these is a supercell which
has taken a right turn across Las Animas county. Most CAM guidance
indicated only one or two strong storms may materialize, but that
they could persist well into the evening and eventually move into
the TX/OK Panhandle. Current observations would support this
solution as additional strong cells have not developed yet and the
environment remains favorable (1000+ MLCAPE and 40 knots of
effective shear) ahead of the ongoing strong supercell. Hail up to 2
inches has already been reported in Las Animas county with similar
peak hail size expected for the duration of the supercell lifecycle
as it moves southeast this evening.
Will not rule out additional strong supercell development this
evening, but expect the primary threat will be associated with the
ongoing strong supercell in Las Animas county.
..Bentley/Hart.. 06/11/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36250539 37400514 38150415 38070235 37050186 36170208
36080334 36250539
