MD 0979 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0979
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023
Areas affected...portions of north-central MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 112217Z - 112315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe potential is expected to increase across portions
of north-central Mississippi this evening. Damaging gusts and hail
will be possible, and a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
needed in the next hour.
DISCUSSION...A couple of isolated supercells likely producing large
hail across east-central AR will continue shifting east/southeast
toward north-central MS the next couple of hours. The downstream
environment is characterized by strong instability amid effective
bulk shear values around 35-40 kt. This should support continuation
of these cells, with additional activity expected to develop/shift
southeast from northern MS this evening. Initially, large hail and
gusts to 60 mph will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates will
support strong outflow winds over the next couple of hours. A
modestly low-level jet (around 25-30 kt) is forecast to increase
this evening and some upscale development into bowing segments is
possible. If this evolution occurs, potential for swaths of damaging
gusts will increase. Given the overall environment, and trends in
HRRR/RRFS guidance, a severe thunderstorm watch likely will be
needed in the next hour or so for portions of north-central MS.
..Leitman/Hart.. 06/11/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 34209091 34119040 33888950 33658894 33188849 32728873
32548903 32588976 32689019 32939081 33149107 33469128
33709132 34079121 34209091
