MD 0098 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN AR…EASTERN OK…AND SOUTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 Areas affected...northern AR...eastern OK...and southern MO Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 250009Z - 250615Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates of 1"/hr or greater are possible in the next few hours as bands of winter precipitation move northward through the region. DISCUSSION...The ejection of a potent upper-level trough is underway in the southern Plains. Moisture return ahead of this system has yielded a general winter-weather threat, mostly due to heavy snow, mainly centered in eastern OK into north-central AR. As the the system continues to propagate eastward, northeastward translation and further development of the winter precipitation is expected. The main driver is isentropic ascent north of a relatively sharp warm front draped across portions of south-central LA and southern MS. The rain-snow line is currently located far behind the front extending from southwest to northeast through central AR. Due to the overall evolution thus far and short-term guidance, the location of the rain-snow line is not expected to change very much during the next few hours. Within this timeframe, localized maxima in low-level frontogenesis (within the broad moist advection regime associated with isentropic ascent) are expected to yield bouts of higher snowfall rates (e.g., 1-1.5"/hr). The direct impacts to travel and roads may be tempered in areas that recently transitioned from rain to snow and were relatively warmer at the surface; however, reduced visibility is still possible, and quickly accumulating snow is likely in areas at slightly higher elevation. These bouts of locally higher snowfall rates are most likely just north of the rain-snow line across central and northern AR and will generally translate from west to east during the 00-03z timeframe. Later (03-06z), intermittent heavy snowfall rates will be possible to the northwest of the surface low as it propagates through the same general corridor. ..Flournoy/Moore.. 01/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 34379465 34589554 35269585 36169552 36649435 36919318 37079173 37059009 36359001 35699080 35359143 34989237 34579346 34379465