MD 0982 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH NEEDED SOON FOR SOUTHEAST TN…NORTHERN AL…AND NORTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0982
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023
Areas affected...southeast TN...northern AL...and northwest GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon
Valid 112322Z - 112345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and hail are
expected to spread southeast into northern Alabama, southeast
Tennessee and northwest Georgia this evening. A severe thunderstorm
watch will likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms over Middle TN
are expected to continue to spread southeast into northern
AL/northwest GA over the next few hours. Some modest increase in
vertical shear is expected through evening, amid moderate
instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Semi-discrete cells will pose a
risk for large hail given lengthening hodographs with time. A modest
low-level jet is also forecast to increase to around 25-30 kt this
evening, and some upscale development into bowing/forward
propagating clusters. An attendant increase in damaging wind
potential will accompany convection in this scenario. A severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon for portions of the
MCD area.
..Leitman/Hart.. 06/11/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 35038807 35338656 35348646 35338511 35248452 34928444
34338452 34018482 33858578 33858593 33788628 33738711
33888787 34048821 35038807
