MD 0995 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0995
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama and southwestern
Georgia into the western Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 121655Z - 121830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of
southern AL/GA into the FL Panhandle behind the initial round of
storms. Damaging gusts and large hail are possible with the stronger
storms and a WW issuance may be needed within the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Ample surface heating is taking place behind an initial
round of thunderstorms across portions of Southern AL and GA into
the FL Panhandle. The initial round of storms has left an outflow
boundary draped across the FL Panhandle, with a supercell meandering
southeastward, just north of this boundary. Temperatures have
already warmed well into the 80s F, away from the outflow. Given low
to mid 70s F surface dewpoints, over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE is already in
place. In addition, unseasonably strong mid to upper flow is
contributing to 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear amid modestly
curved hodographs, capable of supporting multicells and transient
supercells this afternoon.
Severe potential should continue along the residual outflow boundary
and may increase this afternoon as more storms develop and interact
with this boundary. Additional storms should also develop along a
southward-sagging cold front and sea-breeze boundary. Damaging gusts
and large hail are possible with any of the more mature storms that
develop and a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/12/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 29758509 30198576 30548622 30388752 30388821 30468828
31128834 31478832 31788821 31998804 32018721 31988591
32178468 32228406 32028342 31628296 31048272 30508260
29838268 29638281 29668324 29958370 29918402 29758455
29698495 29758509
