SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST REGION AND OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning across parts of the northeast Gulf Coast region. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible over parts of the middle Atlantic during the afternoon. ...Discussion... Intense 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across the OH Valley ahead a strong short-wave trough that is forecast to eject into the middle Atlantic by 28/00z. This feature will progress off the New England Coast by the end of the day1 period. Associated surface front will advance across GA/FL Panhandle early, then into the western Carolinas by 18z. A corridor of deep convection is currently ongoing across eastern AL, south into the northern Gulf Basin south of the FL Panhandle. Latest diagnostic data suggest upper 60s to near 70F surface dew points will spread inland ahead of this convection across portions of northern FL into extreme southern GA. While the mid-level short wave will eject well north of this region, a few strong/severe thunderstorms may be ongoing at daybreak across this region along trailing portions of the aforementioned cold front. Gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado are possible early in the period across portions of northern FL into southern GA. Later in the afternoon, wind profiles will increase markedly across the middle Atlantic ahead of the short wave. Latest guidance suggests upper 60s surface dew points should overspread the eastern Carolinas ahead of the surging cold front. If this occurs, adequate buoyancy is expected to materialize for the potential for a few robust thunderstorms. Forecast soundings by 20z exhibit strong surface-6km bulk shear with 0-3 SRH values in excess of 300 m2/s2. With 50+kt southerly flow just off the surface, gusty wind potential with this activity appears warranted. Additionally, wind profiles favor supercells and a brief tornado can not be ruled out. Any convection that develops across this region will quickly move off the middle Atlantic Coast as the front shifts east. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/27/2022
