Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1440

   Mesoscale Discussion 1440
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Kansas...northwestern
   Missouri....southeastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...

   Valid 080419Z - 080545Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A small cluster of vigorous thunderstorm development could
   still pose some risk for strong wind gusts near the western
   Missouri/Iowa border vicinity through Midnight-2 AM CDT, but this
   risk may remain marginal and isolated enough that another severe
   weather watch will not be necessary.

   DISCUSSION...Based on recent radar trends, inhibition associated
   with elevated mixed-layer air, even to the north of the Interstate
   70 corridor, has been sufficient to suppress maintenance of vigorous
   thunderstorm development.  Deep-layer shear may be too marginal as
   well, while outflow from the earlier severe storm cluster across the
   Omaha, NE area has also surged southeastward.  

   Intersecting outflow boundaries northwest through north of Falls
   City, NE remain a focus for a relatively vigorous area of
   thunderstorm development.  This could still intensify some, with at 
   least some potential to organize and produce strong surface gusts
   near the western Missouri/Iowa border vicinity, as a remnant MCV
   approaches the Omaha area through 05-07Z.  These trends will
   continue to be monitored, but it is appearing less likely that a new
   severe weather watch will be needed.

   ..Kerr.. 08/08/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   41279517 41649480 41479375 40769377 40089436 39719518
               40329565 41279517