SPC MD 605

MD 0605 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR N-CNTRL TO SERN KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TO SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271829Z - 272000Z

SEVERE THREAT IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
APPEARS TO BE DELAYED IN TIMING AS TSTM INITIATION IN S-CNTRL KS HAS
BEEN CURTAILED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WITH STRONGER HEATING NOW
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...CONVECTION WILL GROW ACROSS N-CNTRL
KS AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP S/SEWD TOWARDS SERN KS. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BETWEEN 19-21Z.

SUBSTANTIAL DRYING NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SPREAD ACROSS
S-CNTRL KS WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE S OF THE COMPACT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE OVER NWRN KS. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
SUPPRESSING TSTM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR S OF THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
THE TRIPLE POINT /LOCATED AROUND 30 S HLC AT 18Z/. WITH INDIVIDUAL
CELL MOTIONS SHIFTING N/NEWD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT ARCED
SEWD INTO SERN KS...CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS STRUGGLED TO REACH
SEVERE INTENSITY. 12Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION MAY REMAIN TIED ALONG AND JUST N OF THE WARM
FRONT IN THE LOBE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE.
STILL...WITH A 50 MILE WIDE AREA OF STRONGER HEATING OCCURRING
BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND REMNANT STRATUS DECK IN CNTRL KS...THIS
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL/TORNADO THREATS.

..GRAMS.. 04/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39669891 39929829 39969775 39579642 38929516 38179450
            37299487 37119634 37279718 37659765 38699829 39669891

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