SPC MD 1412

MD 1412 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS…NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS…PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS…FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

MD 1412 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Areas affected...Portions of west-central Kansas...north-central
Kansas...portions of northeast Kansas...far southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 022020Z - 022215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms developing near Hays, KS is expected
to eventually congeal into a linear segment. Initial development
that can remain discrete will pose a threat for severe hail and
perhaps a tornado. With time, as storm coverage increases and cold
pools congeal, the primary threat will become severe wind gusts.
Convective trends will be monitored for possible WW.

DISCUSSION...A storm or two has recently initiated out of a cluster
of agitated cumulus on visible satellite imagery near Hays, KS.
Given the upstream ascent, evidenced by cirrus moving in from the
southwest on visible satellite, this activity should continue to
increase over the next few hours. Modest lapse rates near 6-6.5 C/km
and effective deep-layer shear of 35-45 kts will support storm
organization with isolated severe hail possible. A subtle
differential heating boundary/wind shift draped across northern
Kansas has enhanced the low-level hodograph curvature to a degree,
if a storm can remain discrete and interact with this boundary, a
tornado cannot be ruled out. However, as storm coverage increases,
as depicted in much of the CAM guidance, storm interactions and
upscale growth should limit tornado and hail potential. With time,
an east/northeastward propagating linear segment will pose primarily
a severe wind gust threat. Trends in convective mode/intensity will
be monitored for possible WW issuance.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 09/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39089980 39599887 40159695 40039579 39379571 38569743
            38279856 38109955 38300011 38770019 39089980 

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SPC MD 1409

MD 1409 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364… FOR PORTIONS OF IOWA…FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI…AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS

MD 1409 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 PM CDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Iowa...far northern Missouri...and far
northwestern Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364...

Valid 020327Z - 020430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 364.

DISCUSSION...Widespread strong to marginally severe convection
continues across the WW at this time, although the combination of
widespread convective overturning and low-level
cooling/stabilization has tempered the severe threat somewhat. 
Nevertheless, newer updrafts in areas that have not been
convectively overturned will have access to steep mid-level lapse
rates and moderate to strong instability, supporting an isolated
hail and damaging wind threat for the next couple of hours or so. 
Additionally, forward-propagating linear segments entering
southwestern Iowa and vicinity will pose a threat for wind gusts
approaching severe thresholds.  Areas west of these linear segments
will have a decreased severe threat, and cancellations for portions
of WW 364 may be needed behind this line.

..Cook.. 09/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   41619539 42079493 42339269 42299109 42239015 42048972
            41718956 41238988 40939067 40569217 40289384 39989499
            40019585 40559598 41039591 41619539 

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SPC MD 1408

MD 1408 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363… FOR SOUTHEAST NE

MD 1408 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Areas affected...Southeast NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363...

Valid 020239Z - 020415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and large hail remain a severe weather
threat across the southeast Nebraska portion of WW 363.  The storms
located generally west and southwest of Saline and Jefferson
Counties, NE should continue to diminish in intensity, as the
stronger storms advance toward southwest Iowa.  The western half or
western two thirds of WW 363 will likely be canceled early.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived cluster of storms, with a history of
producing severe wind gusts, is now moving into the far eastern
portion of WW 363 in southeast NE where storms have already occurred
or are ongoing, though the environment remains very unstable. 
Effective bulk shear vectors oriented parallel to the surface
boundary extending through southeast NE and then east across
southern IA continue to favor bowing line segments.  The favorable
CAPE/shear parameter space will support damaging winds and large
hail across the eastern third of WW 363.  The recent tracks of the
Lancaster, Otoe, Johnson to Saline cluster of storms indicated these
storms should exit WW 363 into WW 364 between 03-0330Z, allowing the
former watch to expire as scheduled or a little early.

..Peters.. 09/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   38759974 40299861 41359665 41369592 40039544 39989618
            39649630 39569731 39309735 39309786 38879794 38849844
            38739850 38709932 38759974 

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SPC MD 1407

MD 1407 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363… FOR NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHEASTERN NE

MD 1407 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Areas affected...Northern KS and southeastern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363...

Valid 012338Z - 020145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and strong, damaging wind gusts remain severe
threats as storms continue to increase in coverage and intensity
across north-central Kansas, and develop/track to the northeast into
southeast Nebraska this evening.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery since 2130Z showed a
cluster of intense storms is tracking to the northeast across
north-central KS, with this cluster centered on Osborne/western
Mitchell Counties at 2325Z.  Meanwhile, additional strong/intense
cells have developed immediately downstream into Jewell County near
the surface boundary which extends from the ongoing cluster into
southeast NE.  Further strengthening of a southerly low-level jet
with increasing warm advection this evening into northern KS and
eventually southeast NE will allow for continued thunderstorm
development.  This combined with the ongoing larger storm cluster
tracking into stronger instability with east-northeast extent
suggests similar storm intensities can be expected with large hail
and damaging winds the primary threats.  If a cold pool becomes
established with the north-central KS cluster, then damaging winds
will become the primary threat, as the low-level jet veers to
southwesterly into southeast NE.

Additional strong to severe storms have also formed along the
southwest flank/outflow boundary of the initial cluster of storms,
mainly in vicinity of Ellis County where the environment remained
unstable and sufficiently sheared.  Until these latter storms
weaken, the southwest portion of WW 363 should not be canceled.

..Peters.. 09/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   38599961 38999933 39229906 39699896 40119861 40549810
            41099683 41399674 41389599 40299553 40019606 39599626
            39279736 39169780 38879794 38659856 38599961 

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SPC MD 1402

MD 1402 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL KS…SOUTH-CENTRAL NE

MD 1402 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Areas affected...Western/Central KS...South-Central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 011945Z - 012145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated
with a resulting threat for a few instances of strong wind gusts
and/or large hail. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown increased vertical
development within the cluster of predominately mid-level cloudiness
moving northeastward through western KS. This cloudiness is most
likely tied to lift attendant to the shortwave trough moving into
the same area. This lift, coupled with convergence along a surface
trough and continued airmass destabilization (supported by diurnal
heating and moisture advection), is expected to result in increased
thunderstorm coverage over the next hour or two. The development
early in this time frame will likely be elevated but eventual
surface-based development is anticipated. 

Vertical shear is strong enough to support storm organization and
robust updrafts. High-based character to these thunderstorms will
favor the development of potentially strong downdrafts, which
appears to be the primary severe threat. Some large hail is also
possible within the more organized updrafts. Uncertainties regarding
severe coverage preclude high watch probabilities but convective
trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Grams.. 09/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39150088 40190033 40679887 40229730 39059752 38499862
            37920052 39150088 

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SPC MD 1399

MD 1399 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

MD 1399 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1399
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0847 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Areas affected...southeast Nebraska into central Iowa and northern
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 010147Z - 010345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of large hail are expected to
develop this evening.

DISCUSSION...An very unstable air mass currently resides along and
west of a warm front roughly along the MO River. The 00Z OAX and TOP
soundings both show MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, with MUCAPE of
4000-5000 J/kg. In addition, low level shear near the warm front is
strong, owing to large looping hodographs in a warm advection
regime.

Although the air mass is largely capped, a southwesterly low-level
jet increasing to around 50 kt will maintain lift, while the
presence of steep lapse rates aloft support strong updrafts capable
of hail. Overall, convection may remain disorganized, but the amount
of available instability will likely support large to damaging hail
in some of the cells. Therefore, a watch cannot be ruled out this
evening if storm trends suggest more than an isolated severe threat.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 09/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   39649467 40019525 40159633 40419735 40859759 41389725
            41969637 42229572 42229461 41999385 41589315 40959266
            40359249 39849267 39589301 39479367 39649467 

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SPC MD 1396

MD 1396 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NE…NORTHEAST KS…NORTHWEST MO…WESTERN/CENTRAL IA

MD 1396 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Areas affected...Southeast NE...Northeast KS...Northwest
MO...Western/Central IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 310610Z - 310845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail is possible with elevated convection
overnight.

DISCUSSION...ACCAS field over southeast NE/northeast KS has recently
blossomed into deep convection. Steep midlevel lapse rates noted on
area 00Z soundings are supporting moderate elevated instability
across the region, with MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg noted per recent
mesoanalyses. Most CAM guidance suggests elevated convection will
increase in coverage across western/central IA later tonight (around
08-09Z). While the timing is somewhat uncertain, an increase in
convection with time appears plausible as a relatively strong
low-level jet remains focused into the area and the plume of steep
midlevel lapse rates is maintained from the west. 

Midlevel flow is sufficient for effective shear of 30-40 kt for
convection rooted around 800 mb, which will support at least
transient updraft organization with a potential for severe hail.
Most CAM guidance suggests a dominant cluster mode, which would be
somewhat unfavorable for a more organized hail threat, and watch
issuance is currently considered unlikely. However, if a trend
toward more long-lived discrete modes is observed overnight, then
the watch potential will be reconsidered.

..Dean/Edwards.. 08/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39299587 40219646 42129597 43469502 43419401 43099341
            42379306 41409315 40489358 39589416 39139478 39079532
            39299587 

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SPC MD 1393

MD 1393 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS…ADJACENT WESTERN MISSOURI

MD 1393 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Thu Aug 30 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...adjacent western Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 300844Z - 301045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms is possible
through daybreak, with a mostly marginal severe hail risk possibly
transitioning to at least some potential for a few strong surface
gusts.  The need for a watch is not currently anticipated, but
trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...An ongoing increase in thunderstorm development,
generally near/north of Wichita, appears largely in response to
forcing associated with low-level warm advection.  This is on the
nose of one branch of a modest 850 mb jet (around 30 kt), which
output from the Rapid Refresh suggests may develop northeastward
near/just west of the I-35 corridor through daybreak, before
weakening.  

In the presence of sizable CAPE (2000-3000+ J/kg) for moist parcels
based above a relatively stable near surface layer, but rather
modest to weak shear, convection appears likely to increase in
coverage.  This probably will remain focused to the east of the
warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air (reflected
by the thermal gradient at 700 mb across central/eastern Kansas). 
The evolution of an upscale growing cluster of storms is possible. 
As this occurs, a mostly isolated/marginal severe hail threat
probably will diminish, but there could still become a period with
some increase in potential for strong wind gusts associated with a
developing eastward advancing (in the presence of 20 kt westerly
deep layer mean flow) cold pool, before activity weakens.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39459566 39229476 37999406 37399489 37289639 37849792
            38599761 39459566 

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SPC MD 1368

MD 1368 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352… FOR NORTHERN MN

MD 1368 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

Areas affected...Northern MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352...

Valid 270704Z - 270930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat spreading across northern Minnesota
with potential for WW 352 to be expanded east into part of the
Minnesota Arrowhead region.

DISCUSSION...At 0650Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a line of fast
moving (45-50 kt) storms extending from Ontario and across the
international border into northern MN (near KINL) and then southwest
to southern Beltrami and Hubbard Counties.  Although objective
analyses had indicated an increase in inhibition during Sunday
evening across northern MN, rising surface temperatures and dew
points per observations across northeast MN ahead of the line are
aiding in late night destabilization, and some steepening of
low-level lapse rates.  This is being aided further by steep
midlevel lapse rates spreading east across this region ahead of a
progressive shortwave trough. IR satellite imagery indicated cooling
cloud tops with the southern extent of the line, suggesting
intensifying storms.  Given these factors combined with strong
effective bulk shear, the threat for damaging winds persists
eastward overnight.

..Peters.. 08/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   46999468 47239526 47779483 48149375 48309356 48589345
            48639315 48439248 48219177 48169102 47789101 47309177
            47069310 46979385 46999468 

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SPC MD 1304

MD 1304 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338… FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS

MD 1304 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Areas affected...Parts of central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338...

Valid 170254Z - 170430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338
continues.

SUMMARY...Lingering thunderstorm activity and associated risk for
mainly severe hail is expected to gradually diminish late this
evening.  An additional severe weather watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A low-level baroclinic zone remains a focus for strong
to severe thunderstorm development near and east/southeast of
Salina.  This appears to be supported by a corridor of residual
moderate boundary layer instability (CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg),
in the presence of  moderate to strong deep layer shear beneath
30-40 kt northwesterly 500 mb flow.  With the continuing progression
of the mid-level closed low into the middle Mississippi Valley and,
perhaps more importantly, continuing boundary layer cooling and
gradual stabilization, the lingering risk for severe hail and
locally strong surface gusts is expected to diminish through the
04-05Z time frame.

..Kerr.. 08/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39019803 38969609 38649496 37639558 37629672 38259796
            39019803 

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