SPC MD 581

MD 0581 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MO…FAR EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR

MD 0581 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0581
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Areas affected...portions of western MO...far eastern KS/northeast
OK and northwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 141841Z - 142045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon. The most intense cells could produce large hail and
locally damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...A deepening CU field is evident across the region
beneath scattered midlevel cloudiness associated with a couple of
MCVs migrating across western MO and northeast OK. Surface dewpoints
have increased to the mid to upper 60s F across most of the
discussion area beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (7-7.5
C/km). This has resulted in moderate MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg
per 17z Mesoanalysis and 18z TOP RAOB. As temperatures continue to
to warm into the upper 70s F, weak MLCIN will rapidly erode. Forcing
across the region is modest, however, the aforementioned MCVs could
aid in otherwise diurnally-driven convective initiation in the next
couple of hours. Thunderstorm clusters will be the preferred storm
mode given marginal effective shear (25-35 kt), but moderate
instability and steep lapse rates should compensate somewhat,
allowing for at least a few briefly strong to severe thunderstorms
capable of large hail and locally damaging gusts. Trends will be
monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   35519325 35609411 36139459 37579470 38179458 38549431
            38759372 38819335 38819282 38699237 38509208 38199191
            37899182 36989171 36569179 36039200 35639249 35569296
            35519325 

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SPC MD 580

MD 0580 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN KANSAS…SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…NORTHWEST MISSOURI…SOUTHWEST IOWA

MD 0580 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0580
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020

Areas affected...Northern Kansas...Southeast Nebraska...Northwest
Missouri...Southwest Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 140448Z - 140715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A large hail threat may develop across parts of the
central Plains tonight from northeast Kansas into southwest Iowa.
Weather watch issuance is currently being considered.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 999 mb low over
southeast Colorado. A warm front extends east-northeastward from the
low across north-central and northeast Kansas. Thunderstorms are
currently developing near the front to the northeast of Salina,
Kansas. As a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet continues to strengthen,
convective development is expected to take place across much of
northeast Kansas. An east-to-west band of thunderstorms should move
northeastward into southeast Nebraska, northwest Missouri and
southwest Iowa in the 05Z to 07Z timeframe. MUCAPE in the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range, steep mid-level lapse rates and effective shear of
30 to 40 kt should be favorable for hail with the stronger cores,
and possibly some large hail. The storms will remain elevated due to
a strong capping inversion limiting the wind damage threat.

..Broyles/Hart.. 05/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40099330 39799384 39509543 39339650 39289768 39489813
            39839827 40339813 40689737 41019600 41199487 40839355
            40099330 

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SPC MD 529

MD 0529 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161…162… FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS INTO MO AND NORTHERN AR

MD 0529 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CDT Mon May 04 2020

Areas affected...Portions of eastern KS into MO and northern AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161...162...

Valid 041538Z - 041715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161, 162
continues.

SUMMARY...Both a large hail and severe/damaging wind threat will
continue through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue late this morning across parts of
eastern KS into western MO and far northwestern AR in association
with an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the central Plains and
pronounced southerly low-level warm advection. Numerous instances of
large hail have occurred, along with some measured severe winds and
related damage. Current expectations are for the ongoing cluster in
the vicinity of Topeka, KS at 1530Z to continue east-southeastward
along an instability gradient/warm front for at least the next
couple of hours. The main threat with this small cluster will likely
become scattered severe/damaging winds, some of which have already
been estimated and measured between 70-80 mph. Isolated large hail
also remains possible, especially with a supercell on the
southwestern flank of the cluster.

Ongoing supercells moving into western MO and far northern AR are
also beginning to merge and interact with one another.  Given
sufficient buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear, large hail
generally between 1-2 inches in diameter should remain a concern in
the short term. By the early afternoon and with continued cell
mergers/interactions, these storms may also have a tendency to form
into one or more bowing clusters moving east-southeastward along a
warm front across parts of central/southern MO and northern AR. If
this occurs, then damaging winds would likely become a greater
threat.

..Gleason.. 05/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...

LAT...LON   38349662 39309605 39309379 38309212 37509117 36459072
            35909081 35429111 35399217 35699342 36019405 36339434
            37009454 37109471 37589593 38349662 

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SPC MD 528

MD 0528 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MO…EASTERN OK…AND WESTERN AR

MD 0528 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 AM CDT Mon May 04 2020

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS into
western/southern MO...eastern OK...and western AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161...

Valid 041400Z - 041530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161
continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest short-term severe hail threat should focus
across parts of eastern KS into western MO. Isolated severe wind
gusts are possible too. Additional storms that have formed over
eastern OK may require watch issuance into parts of northern AR if
they continue to increase in coverage and intensity.

DISCUSSION...Several severe hail producing supercells elevated above
a low-level inversion continue across parts of central/eastern KS
this morning. Very steep mid-level lapse rates observed by the 12Z
DDC sounding have overspread this region along with a strong
south-southwesterly low-level jet evident from the KICT VWP. Current
expectations are for these elevated supercells to continue moving
east-southeastward along an instability gradient across eastern KS
into western MO. Large hail, generally in the 1-2 inch diameter
range, should continue to be the main threat in the short term. But,
a couple instances of even larger hail up to 2.75 inches in diameter
have already occurred given a favorable storm mode, steep mid-level
lapse rates, and 50-60+ kt of effective bulk shear. Isolated severe
wind gusts may also become a greater concern later this morning as
diurnal heating acts to erode a low-level stable layer and some
clustering of the ongoing storms occurs.

Farther south, additional elevated storms have formed over far
northeastern OK in a similar regime, but with even more MUCAPE
present compared to locations farther north (upwards of 2000-3000
J/kg). This activity should develop into parts of far southern MO
and perhaps northwestern AR over the next couple of hours. Depending
on storm coverage, intensity, and motion, an additional Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be warranted for parts of northern AR.

..Gleason.. 05/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39879784 39709530 39079389 36769240 36139252 35719312
            35389391 35339482 35899490 36479521 37079588 37869592
            38229753 38929788 39499820 39879784 

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SPC MD 527

MD 0527 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA…NORTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS…FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

MD 0527 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 AM CDT Mon May 04 2020

Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...Northern and Eastern
Kansas...Far Southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 041050Z - 041145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms associated with large hail and
isolated wind damage appear likely to develop across parts of the
central Plains this morning. The severe threat may also affect parts
of southwest Missouri. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1002 mb low over
far southeast Colorado with low-level moisture maximized to the
southeast of the low in Oklahoma. Low-level moisture lessens with
northward extent across southern and central Kansas. The
distribution of instability is similar to that of low-level
moisture, with MUCAPE maximized near 3500 J/kg in Oklahoma. A
gradient of instability is present in central and southeast Kansas
near an elevated warm front. Short-term model forecasts develop a
northwest to southeast band of thunderstorms just after daybreak
along the gradient of instability. Initially, the storms will be
elevated. Strong effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates
will be favorable for supercells with large hail. As surface
temperatures warm, the chance for surface-based thunderstorms will
increase, making wind damage a possibility. As the exact corridor
with the greatest severe threat becomes more certain, weather watch
issuance will likely be needed across parts of the central Plains to
the Ozarks this morning.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
GLD...

LAT...LON   36889497 36889396 37979380 39479625 40469820 40519904
            40259947 39399968 38009755 36889497 

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SPC MD 516

MD 0516 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI

MD 0516 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Sun May 03 2020

Areas affected...Southwest and South-central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 031258Z - 031530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat will likely affect parts of
southwestern Missouri over the next couple of hours, and possibly
reach south-central Missouri later this morning. A potential may
also exist for strong wind gusts. Weather watch can't be ruled out
at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front from
northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri. A line of strong to
severe thunderstorms is ongoing to the north of the boundary in
southeast Kansas. This line is located along a gradient of moderate
instability with the RAP showing an east to west corridor of MUCAPE
in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings from
southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri this morning show effective
shear of 35 to 45 kt with steep mid-level lapse rates. This may be
enough to continue a severe threat as the line moves eastward into
southwest Missouri over the next few hours. There is some
uncertainty concerning the longevity of the convection. To the east
across southern Missouri, effective shear is a bit weaker and lapse
rates are slightly less steep. This may help keep the severe threat
isolated. Even so, the severe threat will continue to be monitored
for possible watch issuance.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38509531 38509631 38349732 37879799 37569815 37329808
            37049754 36999609 37099484 37639444 38369472 38509531 

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SPC MD 515

MD 0515 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS

MD 0515 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 AM CDT Sun May 03 2020

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 031105Z - 031330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat should continue for a few
more hours this morning across southeast Kansas. The threat should
remain marginal and weather watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing
across south-central Kansas this morning. This convection is being
supported by a shortwave trough moving through the central Plains,
evident on water vapor imagery. Also, warm advection is occurring
over a post-frontal airmass with a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet
analyzed across northern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. The RAP
is showing moderate instablity across much of southeast Kansas with
MUCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This combined with effective
shear of 40 to 45 kt and mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km will be
favorable for isolated severe hail. The hail threat should persist
for a few more hours as the convection moves eastward along a
gradient of moderate instability. The wind damage threat should
remain minimal due to the elevated nature of the storms.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38509531 38509631 38349732 37879799 37569815 37329808
            37049754 36999609 37099484 37639444 38369472 38509531 

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SPC MD 506

MD 0506 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO

MD 0506 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020

Areas affected...eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301736Z - 301900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms capable of marginally severe hail and
gusty downdraft winds will be possible across portions of the
intermountain west this afternoon. Limited storm coverage suggest a
weather watch is not likely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Lift from an upper-level shortwave trough and a 50 to
60 kt jet is helping to destablize the atmosphere across the
intermountain west this morning/afternoon. Current visible satellite
data shows a deepening trend with agitated towering cumulus along
the ridge tops of the Steens Mountains and the western rim of the
Snake River Valley. Several intra-cloud flashes have also been noted
in these areas suggesting that deeper updrafts are beginning to
coalesce and organize. Parameter space is favorable for a few high
based supercells and organized clusters given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg
and effective shear of 40-50 kt. Storms will likely develop off of
the higher terrain over the next couple of hours and pose a risk for
marginally severe hail and strong downdraft winds given favorable
lapse rates in the low and mid-levels. A weather watch is not
expected due to the relatively sparse coverage projected by CAMS,
but trends will be monitored.

..Lyons/Hart.. 04/30/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI...PDT...

LAT...LON   42491423 42231458 42111527 42041641 42081701 42071771
            42151811 42231839 42311866 42331881 42671884 42991883
            43361881 43661877 43981863 44381827 44741769 44771709
            44751617 44751555 44681490 44481434 43841400 43071405
            42491423 

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SPC MD 503

MD 0503 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST-CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA

MD 0503 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020

Areas affected...West-central coastal areas of Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 300401Z - 300530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong/damaging wind gusts may impact the immediate
west-central coast of Florida. The Tampa/Sarasota corridor will be
impacted by 1-130 AM EDT. The isolated wind-damage threat should
diminish quickly as storms move inland.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong thunderstorms is approaching the
west-central coast of Florida. Ahead of this line, dewpoints have
risen along the immediate coast over the past hour or two. Though
warm air aloft was observed on the 00Z TBW sounding, modest cooling
of the mid-level profile will occur as the synoptic wave digs
slightly southward through the overnight. Both of these factors will
contribute to MLCAPE values of around 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg.
Farther inland, temperatures are a bit cooler and the low-level
airmass drier. The expectation is that a narrow corridor of
strong/damaging wind gusts may occur as the line move onshore, with
the potential for and intensity of wind gusts diminishing as storms
progress inland. Cloud tops on IR satellite imagery have warmed
slightly over the past half hour; however, the strongest portion of
the line appears to be moving in the direction of the Tampa/Sarasota
corridor and will arrive around 1-130 AM EDT. The threat is expected
to be both marginal and isolated. No WW is anticipated.

..Wendt/Edwards.. 04/30/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

LAT...LON   28308326 28748313 28878280 28798253 28358229 27368227
            27128264 27528300 28098328 28308326 

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains
this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Eastern Oklahoma
  Northeast Texas
  Far western Arkansas

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A couple of tornadoes
  Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across
  portions of the southern Plains into the Arklatex region.
  Damaging winds, with gusts possibly exceeding 65 mph, and very
  large hail can be expected.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Broyles.. 04/28/2020

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