SPC MD 570

MD 0570 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

MD 0570 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Tue May 07 2019

Areas affected...Southeastern Kansas and adjacent portions of
northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 071911Z - 072115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of storms may strengthen and become
better organized through 3-5 PM CDT, possible becoming accompanied
by increasing potential for strong surface gusts approaching severe
limits.  It is not certain that a watch will be needed, but trends
will continue to be monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...A sustained cluster of thunderstorms to the
west/northwest of Wichita has been supported by large-scale ascent
associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, to the cool
side of the stalled surface frontal zone.  This appears close enough
to the front that continuing inflow of seasonably moist and
destabilizing air from the warm sector may maintain activity and
contribute to substantial further intensification through mid to
late afternoon.

As this occurs, there appears potential for a gradually
strengthening surface cold pool, coupled with at least modest shear
in the convective layer, to contribute to the evolution of a better
organized mesoscale convective system, with increasing potential for
strong surface gusts.  Despite being embedded within rather weak
(less than 20 kt) west-southwesterly ambient mean flow, storm-scale
process could lead to peak gusts at least approaching severe limits.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38369707 38769580 38429489 37099494 36679724 36759836
            37499888 38369707 

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT TUE MAY 07 2019

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern High
Plains this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Texas Panhandle
  Western Oklahoma

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a few intense
  Widespread large hail, some baseball size
  Widespread damaging winds

* SUMMARY...
  Numerous severe storms are expected this afternoon into early
  tonight across the Texas Panhandle into extreme western
  Oklahoma. A couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
  damaging winds will all be possible.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Smith.. 05/07/2019

$$

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SPC MD 561

MD 0561 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 140… FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI

MD 0561 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Mon May 06 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 140...

Valid 070026Z - 070200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 140 continues.

SUMMARY...A developing MCS is expected to move southeastward with a
damaging wind threat through the evening and into the overnight
hours. In addition, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible.

DISCUSSION...Considerable convective development has occurred over
the last hour in east-central Kansas as richer low-level moisture
(depicted by the agitated cumulus field in central Kansas) advected
northward and interacted with ongoing storms/outflow boundaries.
These numerous storms which have developed will likely aid cold-pool
development over the next hour or two. By later this evening, a
forward propagating MCS is expected in southeast Kansas and into far
western Missouri as these storms congeal and organize. Very steep
mid-level lapse rates (8 to 9 C/km per regional 00Z RAOBs) will
support some large hail threat, but the primary threat will likely
be damaging winds. The apex of this eventual bowing segment is
expected to track along the instability gradient which can clearly
be seen on visible satellite imagery extending from Lyon county, KS
southeastward to Cherokee county.

A brief tornado or two will also be possible in the short term (with
more supercellular activity) and also along the bowing segment as it
moves southeast. 

A downstream watch may eventually be needed for portions of
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri ahead of this MCS.

..Bentley.. 05/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38919663 39129561 39039467 38489420 37799404 37199455
            36909551 36929642 37539741 37949783 38619809 38949785
            38919663 

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SPC MD 559

MD 0559 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139… FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS

MD 0559 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Mon May 06 2019

Areas affected...Northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 139...

Valid 062208Z - 062345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 139
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells will continue to pose a large hail
threat through the afternoon and into the evening. Continued upscale
growth of this storm cluster will increase the damaging wind threat
through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Until the last hour, storms in northeast Kansas were
mostly north of the front with one stronger cell in closer proximity
to the front. In the last hour, additional storms have developed
along the front in Dickinson County, Kansas. These storms have
remained mostly on the cool side of the front up to this point
suggesting they are likely slightly elevated with primarily a large
hail threat. The 20Z TOP sounding modified for near storms
conditions of 78/62 in Salina, KS shows MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and
30 knots of effective shear. This will continue to support supercell
structures and mid-level lapse rates around 8 to 8.5 C/km will aid
in the large hail threat.

Shear vector orientation would suggest some of these storms may be
able to move southward off of the front and become more surface
based. The TWX VWP shows weak winds in the lowest 1.5 to 2km
however, low-level turning is significant enough to support a brief
tornado threat with any of the storms which can remain on the warm
side of the front for the time they remain discrete. 

Eventually storms are expected to grow upscale into an MCS which
will move southeastward along the instability gradient. By this
time, the severe weather threat will likely shift toward damaging
wind across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

..Bentley.. 05/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   40009718 40019583 39869523 39149461 38489459 38139471
            37909511 37949589 38119682 38539771 38779805 39079800
            39629727 40009718 

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SPC MD 554

MD 0554 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

MD 0554 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0554
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Mon May 06 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southern Nebraska and north central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061816Z - 062015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least some increase in severe hail potential appears
possible through 3-4 PM CDT.  It remains unclear whether this will
require a severe weather watch, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent associated with lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection has been supporting scattered
thunderstorm development the past few hours.  This has been
generally focused on the northeastern periphery of a plume of warm
and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which may only continue to
slowly shift eastward toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley
through this evening.

Stronger convection should remain rooted (around 700 mb) above a
substantive near surface stable layer, to the cool side of the
surface frontal zone.  However, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests
that an influx increasingly moist air aloft, emanating from the warm
sector, coupled with strengthening mid-level lift, may contribute to
further destabilization and intensifying storm development through
20-21Z.  It appears that vertical shear within the convective layer
may become sufficient for a couple of supercells, perhaps leading to
at least some increase in severe hail potential.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   41229965 41059817 40439654 39749658 39569674 39139806
            39649972 40530034 41229965 

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SPC MD 551

MD 0551 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136… FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS

MD 0551 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0918 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

Areas affected...Northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136...

Valid 060218Z - 060315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues in severe thunderstorm
watch 136.

DISCUSSION...An outflow dominant line of thunderstorms continues to
move southward in northeast Kansas. These storms have been mostly
sub-severe as the outflow boundary is now well ahead of the storms.
Expect the severe threat to remain minimal from this activity as it
continues southward. The better chance for severe storms will be
from storms now in the western portion of watch 136 and from new
development south of the outflow boundary. The 00Z TOP RAOB showed
relatively weak instability with significant inhibition, however the
TWX VWP has shown a strengthening low-level jet in the last 30
minutes and this has proven sufficient for additional storm
development. Given the aforementioned weak instability, a widespread
severe threat is not anticipated, but a few strong to severe storms
are possible for the next few hours.

..Bentley.. 05/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39839816 40239763 40099640 40139540 39959506 39589489
            39079519 38779591 38599754 38769804 39329819 39839816 

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SPC MD 548

MD 0548 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS

MD 0548 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

Areas affected...Far southeast Nebraska and Northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 052333Z - 060100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells in southeast Nebraska will
continue to move south-southeastward through the evening and into
the overnight hours. A new severe thunderstorm watch is likely for
northeast Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Two strong supercells in southeast Nebraska have been
producing hail in excess of 2 inches for the past several hours. The
supercell in Lancaster County, Nebraska collapsed over the town of
Lincoln with reports of wind gusts in excess of 100 mph (measured 87
mph at LNK ASOS) and structural damage. While the high end wind
threat has likely waned from this supercell, expect the severe
weather threat to continue along and ahead of this line of storms.
The temperature has dropped to 51 degrees in Lincoln suggesting that
a strong cold pool is starting to develop from this cluster of
storms. Shear orientation is mostly parallel to the east/west
outflow boundary south of these storms which is not ideal for a
widespread wind damage threat. However, this strengthening cold pool
may serve as a continued initiation zone for additional convection
through the rest of the evening and into the overnight hours,
especially as the low-level jet strengthens. As new updrafts
develop, they will likely pose a threat for large hail and damaging
winds given the unstable downstream environment (2000-2500 MLCAPE)
and steep mid-level lapse rates (~9 C/km). 

The strong cyclonic rotation within the easternmost supercell will
likely led to more eastward movement than has been observed up to
this point. Therefore, storms may try to move into northwest
Missouri. However, a significantly drier low-level airmass and
significant inhibition east of the Kansas/Missouri state line would
suggest any severe threat in Missouri would be limited.

..Bentley/Grams.. 05/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   41009642 40849534 40399502 39539493 38979516 38669554
            38579650 38609750 38779817 39379854 40239870 40569847
            41009642 

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SPC MD 545

MD 0545 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 131… FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

MD 0545 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

Areas affected...Southeastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131...

Valid 052201Z - 052330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells in southeastern Nebraska are
producing large to potentially very large hail. This threat is
expected to continue into the evening as these storms drift
southward along a slow moving cold front.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells in southeast Nebraska have been
producing large hail for the past few hours. The westernmost
supercell in Hamilton county Nebraska has produced multiple golf
ball sized hail reports and latest MESH trends suggest hail in
excess of 2 inches may be possible. Expect the westernmost storm in
this cluster to continue to pose the greatest severe threat due to
the higher instability (2000 J/kg MLCAPE per RAP mesoanalysis).
Current effective shear is around 30 to 35 knots per RAP
mesoanalysis and UEX/OAX VWP, however, mid-level winds are expected
to increase through the evening which will further support supercell
organization. In addition, a low-level jet is expected to increase
somewhat during the late evening and early overnight hours which,
combined with maintenance due to the dynamic pressure perturbations
of the rotating updrafts, will support a severe threat continuing
after dark, possibly into northeast Kansas. 

Additional storm development is possible along the cold front in
western portions of watch 131. Cumulus have become more numerous
along the line in the last hour and low-level moisture advection
into this area will lead to continued destabilization along the
boundary. 

Very steep mid-level lapse rates (9.3 C/km per 12Z LBF RAOB) will
continue to support very large hail with the strongest updrafts,
especially in the western half of watch 131 where destabilization is
greatest.

..Bentley.. 05/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD...

LAT...LON   41249859 41409797 41449722 41409663 41259593 40639574
            40049548 39769566 39649710 39789846 39889904 39889958
            39919986 40059995 40349997 40809937 41249859 

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SPC MD 474

MD 0474 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO

MD 0474 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

Areas affected...southeast KS into southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 290900Z - 291030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts may persist another 1-2 hours as
the bow echo approaches west-central and southwest MO. Overall
severe threat will remain limited and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A mature bow echo is tracking across southeast KS early
this morning. Latest tracking info suggest the line is shifting east
at around 50-55 mph. This is consistent with regional 88-D VWP data
indicating south/southwesterly flow from around 1 to 6 km between 45
and 60 kt. Strong wind gusts may continue as the line approaches the
KS/MO border given the strength of the rear inflow and forward speed
of the line. However, instability quickly diminishes with eastward
extent where poorer quality moisture (surface dewpoints into the mid
40s to low 50s) exists across western MO. Furthermore,
boundary-layer inhibition is quite strong. Radar trends continue to
indicate further weakening and this is expected to continue as the
line pushes into west-central/southwest MO. While a locally strong
wind gust is possible, the overall severe threat is expected to
remain low and a watch is not expected.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 04/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38659556 38669502 38499405 38259358 37979329 37699329
            37319348 37069376 36989419 36989442 37049519 37349626
            37619661 37889650 38209593 38659556 

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SPC MD 471

MD 0471 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108… FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL KS

MD 0471 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

Areas affected...western/central ks

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108...

Valid 290100Z - 290230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to spread east of ww108
over the next few hours. New ww will be issued downstream to reflect
this threat.

DISCUSSION...Slow-moving cluster of supercells that evolved near the
CO/KS border earlier this evening may begin to surge east soon.
Latest radar data suggests forward propagation may be increasing as
cluster spreads across Logan/Gove counties. Low-level warm advection
is expected to aid this eastward movement and continued moistening
into the I-70 corridor favors increasing severe threat into central
KS. New ww will likely be issued by 02z.

..Darrow.. 04/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39220080 39359779 38999694 38209710 37999802 38190056
            39220080 

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