SPC MD 836

MD 0836 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST MO

MD 0836 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

Areas affected...portions of central into southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 050831Z - 051000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorms watch will be issued across parts
of southwest into central MO. Locally damaging gusts and hail are
possible.

DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms continues to produce severe
gusts and occasional hail across parts of northwest MO and eastern
KS within WW 255. These storms are moving toward the southeast at
around 35 kt. Most recently, a severe gust to 51 kt was measured at
in Shawnee County, KS and 56 kt measured at St. Joseph, MO. Earlier
signs of outflow surging ahead of the southern portions of the
bowing MCS continue across parts of KS, however, redevelopment and
intensification of additional cells near the outflow has been noted
recently as storms approach the KS/MO state line near Kansas City.
Additionally, cloud tops continue to cool in IR satellite loops,
suggesting the MCS may still undergo additional strengthening.

The downstream environment remains supportive of strong gusts with
MLCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg common. While some inhibition
exists, forecast soundings and 00z RAOB from SGF show favorable
thermodynamic profiles for intense downdrafts. Regional VWP data
also continues to show a rear-inflow jet of 50+ kts associated with
the bowing MCS.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   37019323 36979408 37449476 37949488 38149477 38469417
            38859337 39079272 39139215 38779172 37779179 37619191
            37319217 37019323 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2MycfCI

SPC MD 835

MD 0835 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 255… FOR NORTHEAST KS…NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST IA

MD 0835 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0835
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

Areas affected...northeast KS...northwest MO and southwest IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255...

Valid 050659Z - 050830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe, locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible
over the next couple of hours, especially along the I-70 corridor
from Topeka to Kansas City.

DISCUSSION...Intense convection continues to track southeast across
WW 255 at around 40 kt, with some potential for an increase in
forward speed over the next hour. Backed surface winds from the
east/southeast are sustaining surface dewpoints in the low 70s F
ahead of the line of convection beneath moderately steep midlevel
lapse rates. This is aiding in MLCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg
across the region. Examination of regional VWPs show increasing 1-2
km southwesterly winds at TWX and evidence of a rear-inflow jet from
OAX. The 00z RAOB from TOP further indicates a thermodynamic profile
supportive of strong downdrafts. Furthermore, recent radar data
suggests evidence of possibly descending rear-inflow across
Pottawatomie County KS where lower reflectivity notches are noted
behind the line. Given a favorable environment ahead of this
organized line of storms, expect that severe, locally damaging,
gusts will continue as the storms move east/southeast toward TOP and
MCI in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor. 

Another corridor of strong to severe winds is possible further north
from far northwest MO toward toward CDJ, though this portion of the
line is expected to traverse a somewhat weaker instability gradient.

..Leitman.. 06/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   41159591 41149491 40389337 39109296 38569348 38349448
            38439595 38889696 39499717 40289641 41159591 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/30aYXUP

SPC MD 831

MD 0831 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254… FOR CENTRAL PLAINS

MD 0831 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0831
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0936 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

Areas affected...Central Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254...

Valid 050236Z - 050400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts remain
possible.

DISCUSSION...Earlier convection that developed over the central High
Plains has since migrated across central NE with locally severe
winds, but little appreciable organization. Modest LLJ will
gradually veer across eastern NE tonight and this should contribute
to continued east-southeast propagation. Latest CAMs suggest an
upward-evolving complex of storms could evolve within this warm
advection zone, possibly spreading into northwestern MO later
tonight.

..Darrow.. 06/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40009932 44059934 44049671 39999687 40009932 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1j0UiVD

SPC MD 808

MD 0808 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 248… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KS AND WEST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWESTERN MO

MD 0808 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0808
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern KS and west-central into
southwestern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248...

Valid 040832Z - 041000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe winds may continue with a line of
storms moving southward early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Outflow from a back-building cluster of storms over
central MO has merged with the southward-moving line over
west-central MO and southeastern KS, where the strongest
reflectivity and velocity signatures are currently noted. Occasional
strong to severe wind gusts producing isolated damage have been
observed with this convection over the past couple of hours across
the Kansas City metro area. The greatest near-term threat for
damaging winds appears to be over far southeastern KS and
southwestern MO, where a relatively unstable airmass still resides
(MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg). Recent radar trends indicate that a
supercell embedded within the line over Bates County MO has recently
strengthened. Isolated large hail may occur if this supercell can
persist. Some potential for a brief/isolated tornado may also exist
along the leading edge of the line in southwestern MO, where around
100-150 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH is present per latest mesoanalysis and
VWP estimates from KSGF.

..Gleason.. 06/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38199590 38179503 38479420 38779364 38049308 37189310
            37099490 37469591 38199590 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1o8bRZc

SPC MD 807

MD 0807 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO

MD 0807 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0807
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS and western MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247...

Valid 040554Z - 040730Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247
continues.

SUMMARY...A line of storms may remain capable of producing strong to
severe winds for the next several hours. New watch issuance into
parts of southeastern KS and southwestern MO is possible.

DISCUSSION...A well developed squall line is ongoing across
northeastern KS and vicinity at 0550Z, moving quickly southeastward
around 45-50 kt. Enhanced southwesterly winds of 30-40 kt in the 0-1
km layer per KICT/KEAX radars are supporting a continued feed of
low-level moisture ahead of the line. Even with some convective
inhibition owing to nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer, at
least a  moderately unstable airmass downstream of this ongoing
convection (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg) should support the potential for
strong to severe wind gusts as the line approaches the Kansas City
metro area in the next hour or so. Recent back-building has also
occurred into parts of southeastern KS. Depending on short-term
observational trends, a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed
for parts of southeastern KS into southwestern MO.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38419804 39259708 39529627 39979526 40269510 40189403
            38719354 37049346 37039513 37649739 38419804 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3gLKjJv

SPC MD 806

MD 0806 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247… FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…NORTHEAST KANSAS…NORTHWEST MISSOURI

MD 0806 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0806
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Areas affected...southeast Nebraska...northeast Kansas...northwest
Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247...

Valid 040344Z - 040545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds will continue southeast, and
may increase, necessitating watch expansion.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived cell cluster and other surging outflows
remain intact as they move into southeast NE and now expand into
northern KS. Significant wind gusts of 70-80 mph have been measured.
Given latest increasing storm trends, and ample instability
downstream, the damaging wind threat may persist beyond the current
bounds of watch 247, affecting the I-70 corridor.

In addition to ample moisture/instability, VWPs indicate 925 mb
winds increasing to 30 kt which may further aid storm inflow and
convective feedback.

Elsewhere, other storms continue to slowly propagate west across
north-central MO, with impressive IR presentation. Eventually, these
two systems may link.

..Jewell.. 06/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39199803 39379839 39669835 40069813 40359812 40469747
            40699727 40979719 41109703 40959610 40759524 40419459
            39849386 39309358 38709376 38249420 38169505 38309580
            38729701 39199803 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1o7AMfi

SPC MD 805

MD 0805 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246… FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…NORTHEAST KANSAS…NORTHWEST MISSOURI…SOUTHWEST IOWA

MD 0805 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0805
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Areas affected...southeast Nebraska...northeast Kansas...northwest
Missouri...southwest Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246...

Valid 040154Z - 040400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms over central Nebraska may continue to grow
upscale later this evening toward the Missouri Valley. An additional
watch may be needed downstream.

DISCUSSION...Severe storms are rapidly moving southeast across
central NE, and will soon be approaching the moist advection zone
near/north of the stationary front. Other disorganized storms
continue to evolve to the southwest into south-central NE and
north-central KS.

The storms approaching the GRI area may grow upscale as it
encounters a moistening air mass to the southeast, and as outflow
boundaries near the KS border push forward as well.

The 00Z sounding from TOP shows MLCAPE over 3200 J/kg, and only a
minor capping layer below 700 mb which should easily be breached by
deep outflow with any MCS. A damaging wind threat may thus extend
east of WW 246, and a new watch may be required depending on storm
trends.

..Jewell.. 06/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD...

LAT...LON   39579979 40029948 40539941 40789941 40809874 41019820
            41209796 40789537 40399496 39829487 39129540 39019579
            39159689 39349831 39579979 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3eODcyc

SPC MD 801

MD 0801 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

MD 0801 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0801
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Areas affected...much of central and southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 032253Z - 040200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of storms may eventually consolidate or
spur new development with surging outflows across much of Nebraska.
Large hail and localized wind damage may occur.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms currently extend from northern NE
southwest into northeast CO, where multiple surface boundaries are
evident. In general, a westerly surge will continue to move toward
central NE, with various outflows from ongoing activity.

While the strongest instability is currently over central/eastern KS
into far southeast NE, a lobe of moderate instability remains over
central and west-central NE ahead of the wind shift/outflow.
Although modest MLCIN currently exists over parts of NE, surging
outflows may support various cells or clusters with wind and hail
threat.

..Jewell/Hart.. 06/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39889884 39910030 40100102 40340165 40570187 41050130
            41610098 42060037 42089918 41869856 41609816 41259785
            40889772 40529751 40089760 39869780 39889884 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2I0B2wG

SPC MD 761

MD 0761 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN IDAHO…FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA…AND WESTERN WYOMING

MD 0761 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020

Areas affected...Eastern Idaho...far southwest Montana...and western
Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 292012Z - 292215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will pose a risk for severe wind
into the early evening hours. Due to the isolated nature of the
threat, a watch is not likely.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite trends over the past hour
have shown a gradual increase in convective activity across
southeast ID and western WY as well as developing cumulus across
central ID. Although instability continues to increase via
insolation, limited low and mid-level moisture along with weak
forcing for ascent have largely stunted convective maturation thus
far. An increase in thunderstorm activity is possible as low-level
parcels continue to warm closer to their convective temperatures
through late afternoon and ridge top convergence continues due to
diurnal upslope flow. 

If storms can become established in this environment, 25-35 knots of
effective bulk shear across eastern ID into northwest WY, coupled
with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, should support one or two strong
thunderstorms. Steep, 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates and a dry 1-2
km sub-cloud layer will pose the potential for downburst winds.
Although deep layer shear is not overly strong, isolated instances
of severe hail will be possible. In the near term, a severe risk is
most likely across southeast ID where convective initiation is
underway. Thunderstorm development will likely hold off for another
1-2 hours further north across central/northeast ID and surrounding
areas. Due to the limited coverage of storms a watch is not likely.

..Moore/Grams.. 05/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON   42141429 43111479 44061491 44911453 45481318 45251124
            44820964 44250841 43510770 42670828 42241017 42041146
            42141429 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2EpToG3

SPC MD 720

MD 0720 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221… FOR WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS

MD 0720 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Areas affected...West-central and Northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221...

Valid 250348Z - 250545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage will continue from
west-central Kansas into northern Kansas over the next few hours.
Additional weather watch issuance is not expected beyond the 05Z
expiration but a local extension may still be necessary.

DISCUSSION...The northern end of a large MCS is located along a warm
front in western, central and northeastern Kansas. This convection
is located on the northern edge of a pocket of moderate instability
with MLCAPE estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range according to
the RAP. Wind profiles have a substantial amount of directional
shear near the warm front with east-northeast flow at the surface
and south-southwest flow in the 3 to 6 km layer. This is resulting
in about 35 kt of 0-6 km shear which should be supportive of
isolated severe storms late this evening. The stronger multicells
may produced isolated large hail. As line segments interact and cell
mergers occur, wind damage will also be possible. The threat is
expected to become more isolated with time. A local extension may be
needed if the severe threat persists beyond the 05Z watch
expiration, but a new watch is anticipated.

..Broyles.. 05/25/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38639572 38739706 38779825 38589890 38169938 37759978
            37710049 37940077 38700082 39609986 40029776 39949631
            39439554 38639572 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2LWYai0