SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WEST CENTRAL MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...CENTRAL PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED 70 KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF OK/KS WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL HELP A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE END RESULT WILL BE A FOCUSED AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN KS AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTENSIFY FURTHER BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL KS AS A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DESTABILIZE THE REGION. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG/NORTH OF PRIMARY INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE KC AREA BY EARLY EVENING. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF TORNADOES /POSSIBLY STRONG/. FARTHER SOUTH...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DISCRETE CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FORM IN A REGION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE RATHER NARROW...BUT WILL BE SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL TRACK AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN MO BEFORE A SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS THIS EVENING. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN AL INTO SC LATER TODAY. STRONG HEATING AND A MOIST AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS MAY POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ..HART/SMITH.. 04/27/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
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