Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012 VALID 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT LESS PREDICTABLE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME BY MONDAY /DAY 4/. EARLY MONDAY A STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD THROUGH WRN TX. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST IN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM ERN NM INTO WRN TX...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. WARM SECTOR WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS DAY 5 AS OH VALLEY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND LEE TROUGH WITH ACCOMPANYING SLY LLJ BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM WRN OK INTO KS ALONG THE DRYLINE AS WELL AS FARTHER NORTH IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME CAPPING CONCERNS OVER THE PLAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER COVERAGE EVENT. POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER COVERAGE SEVERE EVENT MAY EVOLVE BY DAY 6 OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION FROM MN...IA INTO WI WHERE MODELS INDICATE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY UPSTREAM FROM RETURNING MOIST AXIS. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT A SEVERE RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION IN THE NEXT EXTENDED UPDATE.
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
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