The first severe weather threat for Jefferson County is upon us. This afternoon we should see a warm front surge northward towards Jefferson County. It appears that the warm front will not advance to Jefferson County. I’m expecting storms to initiate south of us around the Wichita – Emporia area and carry into Jefferson County. There is abundant moisture in place to fuel these storms, but the colder temperatures in the County should limit most of the severe potential here. The colder temperatures may add to the potential of significant hail though and I see that as the primary threat to the County from this system. I still feel that we are on the outside looking in on this threat, but the potential is there and I need to pass it on.
Below is the current weather story graphic from the Pleasant Hill (KC) National Weather Service Office.
Here is the current weather story graphic from the Topeka NWS office.
Below is the hail probability graphic from the Storm Prediction Center. The significant hail threat is dangerously close to the county.
Here is a snapshot from one of the composite models to give an idea of what this system is expected to look like around 6pm.
We will need to watch the end of this system closely as there is a potential for freezing rain and snow on the backside of this, which may impact us early Monday morning.
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