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SPC Day 1 Outlook

















Sep 21, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 21 00:53:59 UTC 2021 (Print Version | 20210921 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20210921 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 210053

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0753 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

   Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
   WISCONSIN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of severe thunderstorms -- capable of producing locally
   damaging wind gusts and hail -- will continue through mid evening
   across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southward to central
   Missouri.

   ...Discussion...
   A semi-continuous line of thunderstorms is ongoing at this time from
   western Lake Superior south-southwestward to far southeastern
   Kansas, near the advancing cold front.  While this band of storms is
   expected to continue through the overnight hours, limited
   instability -- diminishing gradually with the loss of daytime
   heating -- is indicated across most of the region.  As such,
   severe-weather potential is also expected to continue to gradually
   wane through the evening hours.  In the mean time however, will
   maintain a narrow corridor of SLGT risk, from central Wisconsin to
   central Missouri, to reflect the zone of greatest potential for
   damaging winds and/or hail.

   ..Goss.. 09/21/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        

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