SPC AC 260614
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHEAST...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
CORRECTED FOR CENTRAL PLAINS TYPO
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms may occur today from Georgia to
North Carolina, in the central Plains and in the Northeast.
Marginally severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the lower
Mississippi Valley late tonight.
...Georgia/Carolinas...
A cold front will move southeastward into the central Carolinas and
into central Georgia by mid day. Warming surface temperatures along
and ahead of the front during the day will create a corridor of
instability. Although large-scale ascent will be weak across the
region, low-level convergence along the front will aid thunderstorm
development during the late morning and afternoon. The instability
combined with strong deep-layer shear may be enough for a marginal
wind damage threat.
...Northeast...
An upper-level low will move east-northeastward across the lower
Great Lakes this morning. Weak instability is forecast to develop
ahead of the low across parts of New York and New England from late
morning into the early afternoon. Large-scale ascent ahead of the
associated upper-level trough along with strong low-level flow will
aid thunderstorm development. In spite of the weak instability,
deep-layer shear will be strong. This should be enough for
marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells during the
early to mid afternoon.
...Central Plains...
Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the Great
Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen today across the central
High Plains as flow becomes backed to the east-southeast across much
of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. In response, moisture
advection will take place across eastern parts of the central Plains
with surface dewpoints increasing into the mid to upper 40s F.
During the late afternoon and early evening, a 40 to 50 kt low-level
jet is forecast to strengthen. Thunderstorm development is expected
during the evening near the nose of the low-level jet across parts
of northern Kansas and southeast Nebraska. MLCAPE near 500 J/kg and
30 to 40 kt of effective shear may be enough for a marginal hail and
wind damage threat.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
Southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the south-central
U.S. today. In response, moisture advection will take place from the
southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. By tonight, the
northern edge of the moist airmass is forecast be located from the
Arklatex eastward across north-central Mississippi and into
northwestern Alabama. The NAM model suggests that an axis of
instability will form tonight from the Sabine River northeastward
into southeastern Arkansas. MUCAPE could increase into the 1000 to
2000 J/kg range. This combined with 40 kt of effective shear would
support a hail threat with the stronger elevated thunderstorms,
mainly late in the period.
..Broyles/Dean.. 03/26/2021
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