SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS... A SHARP COLD FRONT BISECTS THE GREAT PLAINS FROM ERN CO NEWD TO MN. THIS FRONT HAS ESSENTIALLY STALLED AMIDST BELT OF PRONOUNCED S TO SWLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WITH BOTH PROFILER AND VWP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMING 50-70KT WINDS AT ABOUT 6KM. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTERSECT THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM CO/KS ACROSS NEB/IA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS INCREASING DCVA APPROACHES WITH A MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ONGOING STORMS IMMEDIATELY ON OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SERN NEB TO WRN IA AND SRN MN WILL POSE SOME THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BUT...DESPITE STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR... GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY STRONGER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT DEPICTED WELL ON LATEST TOP SOUNDING. A GREATER THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES MASS INFLOW AND LIFT AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J PER KG IS RELEASED IN THE PRESENCE OF POTENT EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR. SUPERCELLS AND STORM CLUSTERS ROOTED ABOVE THE MORE STABLE/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD EXPAND AND DEVELOP EAST FROM NRN KS/SRN NEB INTO WRN IA THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT RANGE IN CO WHERE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT SHOULD TRACK EAST INTO THE CO ERN PLAINS. AN UPCOMING MCD WILL FURTHER ADDRESS THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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