SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPSTATE NY/NWRN PA... STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO QC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. SRN MOST INFLUENCE OF THE SHORT-WAVE WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO A POSITION FROM WRN LAKE ONTARIO...SWWD INTO NERN OH BY 18Z. IT APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS NY...AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER 80S ACROSS WRN PA. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT MEAGER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IT WOULD SEEM THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED BUT SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED TO WARRANT AT LEAST 5% SEVERE PROBS FOR HAIL/WIND WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. ...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY... AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HEIGHT RISES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WITH STRONG RISES EXPECTED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE 12HR INCREASES ON THE ORDER OF 90-120M CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT OF RISING HEIGHTS IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PROVE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION NORTH OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH INTENSE HEATING SOUTH OF I-70 NEAR THE DRY LINE COULD YIELD A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LATEST DATA SUGGEST LLJ WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS MODULATED BY TYPICAL NOCTURNAL INTENSIFICATION IMPINGING ON THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER AFTER DARK. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY MOISTEN WITH TIME DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES OFF THE WRN GULF BASIN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR VERY ISOLATED DRY LINE ACTIVITY AND FOR A THREAT OF SOME HAIL WITH THE ELEVATED CONVECTION PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN NEB/IA. ..DARROW.. 05/24/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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