SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL TX THROUGH ERN OK...NWRN AR...ERN KS TO MO... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER SERN SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS EVENING PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH SRN MANITOBA. THESE FORECAST HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAKER IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS KS/OK TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...AND A SECOND ONE MOVING SE TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ...LOWER MO VALLEY SWWD THROUGH ERN KS...SWRN MO TO ERN OK... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER NERN KS AND NWRN MO. THE NWRN MO ACTIVITY IS MOVING EWD...WHILE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ON THE SWRN FLANK ACROSS NERN KS. THIS LATTER AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE NEW TSTMS FORM AS A SSWLY LLJ AT 25-30 KT FORMS FROM ERN OK INTO SERN KS/WRN MO THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD ACROSS KS/OK. THIS LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF STRONG TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE MCS WITH A TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND/OR COLD POOL TO AID IN STORMS ADVANCING SWD THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. MEANWHILE...A CAP REMAINING OVER OK HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. ASCENT WITH THE EWD MOVING TROUGH MAY SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION YET THIS EVENING AND GIVEN THE DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE REMAINS SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SERN TX... AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED WNWWD ACROSS NRN TX EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS COOLED AND STABILIZED THE AIR MASS SOME WITH ITS PASSAGE. MEANWHILE...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN N TX AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND NRN EXTENT OF THE DRY LINE INVOF YOUNG COUNTY TX. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH EWD EXTENT AND GENERALLY LIMITED TO WEAK SSEWD STORM MOTIONS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN NARROWED IN E-W BREADTH ACROSS N TX. AN MCV MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS OVER SERN TX YET THIS EVENING...PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. ...PARTS OF MIDDLE TN/NERN MS/NRN AL AND NRN/WRN GA... A CONTINUATION OF SURFACE COOLING...GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...WILL FURTHER STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS CURRENTLY INDICATED BY A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITH ANY OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS BEEN GREATLY REDUCED ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE GULF COAST STATES WITH ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE THROUGH 02-03Z OVER THIS DISCUSSION AREA. ..PETERS.. 05/07/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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