MD 1182 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 347… FOR NW KS…NEB…SCNTRL SD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS...NEB...SCNTRL SD
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 347...
VALID 230334Z - 230500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 347 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 347 WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD
INTO CNTRL AND ERN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM SCNTRL NEB INTO NERN NEB. SFC
DEWPOINTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE NEAR 70 F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS WAS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE NORTH PLATTE 00Z SOUNDING EARLIER
THIS EVENING. THE SOUNDING SHOWED A 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE NEAR
8.5 C/KM SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO CNTRL NEB SHOULD
CONTAIN A LARGE HAIL THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO
DEVELOP AS THE CELLS INTERACT WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET OVER SCNTRL NEB.
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE.
..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 06/23/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...
LAT...LON 44659984 42370123 40880158 40000078 39650012 39929901
41119817 43709833 44739878 44659984
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1182.html
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