MD 0126 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0126 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 AM CST Thu Feb 02 2023 Areas affected...parts of southern Arkansas into portions of the western half of Tennessee Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 021103Z - 021600Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain, falling at rates in excess of 0.05"/hour, on average, with higher amounts locally, will continue falling through mid morning from parts of southern Arkansas portions of the western half of Tennessee DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a zone of precipitation extending from central and northeastern Texas streaming east-northeastward into/across the Tennessee Valley area. This precipitation is occurring within a zone of isentropic ascent atop a cold boundary layer, in advance of a slowly-eastward-moving upper system, currently centered in the vicinity of Far West Texas. Present indications are that as this system slowly advances, the persistent upglide will continue to support the ongoing precipitation band, with the heaviest amounts likely to extend from the Arklatex vicinity to the Tennessee Valley. Latest analysis of surface temperatures shows that most of northeastern Texas, and a majority of northern Louisiana remain above freezing, with a wavy 32 degrees F isotherm extending across southern Arkansas, northeastward to northern Mississippi, and into Middle Tennessee. North of this isotherm, freezing rain is expected to continue, becoming somewhat heavier in parts of the area over the next couple of hours, before eventually diminishing gradually, later this morning. This evolution is supported by the latest RAP forecast, which shows the heaviest amounts of freezing rain likely to occur within this area, and also by latest HREF output which also hints at this scenario. ..Goss.. 02/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33149328 33389360 33879416 34609242 35298960 35698902 35888841 36228716 35808719 35488785 35038893 34298976 34379074 33609093 33749175 33149209 33099301 33149328