MD 0433 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106… FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTH FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023
Areas affected...Southeast GA and north FL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...
Valid 012131Z - 012300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for isolated wind damage and marginally severe
hail will slowly diminish by 00z, and severe thunderstorm watch 106
can be canceled or allowed to expire.
DISCUSSION...A broken band of strong to occasionally severe storms
continues to move southeastward along a diffuse pre-frontal
trough/outflow from southeast GA into the FL Panhandle. Local VWPs
show primarily westerly flow increasing with height, with weak
low-level flow and straight hodographs near and in advance of these
storms. As diurnal temperatures peak and surface cooling begins
over the next few hours, buoyancy should start to slowly diminish.
At the same time, forcing for ascent is already weak and will also
begin to diminish as this area is brushed by the southern fringes of
the lower Great Lakes/Appalachians midlevel trough. Thus, storm
intensity is expected to decrease this evening, and the watch can be
canceled by 23z, or allowed to expire at 00z.
..Thompson.. 04/01/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30678178 30598315 30518425 30438511 30608517 31168279
31158194 31378135 31298102 30788126 30678178
