MD 0621 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH TX…FAR SOUTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0621 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Areas affected...north TX...far southern OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261443Z - 261645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Gradual storm intensification is expected through late morning across the Red River Valley. Timing for an eventual tornado watch across much of north TX is a bit uncertain (~11am-2pm). Marginally severe hail/localized gusts are the primary threats through 12pm. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms straddling the Red River near Wichita Falls. This activity is located both near outflow/a composite front draped over western north TX and extending into the TX South Plains and in the northern portion of a warm frontal zone. Surface temperatures during the mid morning range from the lower 50s near the Red River to near 60 deg F in the Metroplex. Richer low-level moisture is located farther south near Waco where mid 60s surface dewpoints currently reside. Visible satellite imagery shows extensive stratus across central into north TX. Stronger heating will be considerably hindered except for areas west of the Metroplex along I-20 where it appears gravity waves are at least acting to partially disturb the stratus near Abilene. It is within this corridor near Abilene where a moist axis is evident in surface observations and cloud streets are noted in the stratocumulus field, that greater potential instability will reside through the early afternoon. Although surface heating will be limited, gradual theta-e advection in the low levels beneath cool mid-level temperatures will combine to lead to destabilizing airmass across north TX. As a result, moderate buoyancy via elevated parcels (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) is expected to develop through midday across near the Metroplex. A gradual uptick in storm intensity may occur through late morning and a possible marginally severe hail/localized gust risk could materialize. ..Smith/Gleason.. 04/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33969635 33709624 33259634 33069670 33009765 32599839 32729903 33039926 33289896 33479879 33789867 33789790 34019788 34099759 33969635