MD 0626 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203…205… FOR PORTIONS NRN OK…SWRN MO…NRN PANHANDLE OF TX…SRN KS.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0626 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN OK...SWRN MO...NRN PANHANDLE OF TX...SRN KS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203...205... VALID 300331Z - 300530Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203...205...CONTINUES. CONTINUE WW 205. WW 203 MAY BE CLEARED OVER KS BEHIND INITIAL MCS...ALTHOUGH TRAILING TSTMS OVER NRN TX PANHANDLE PORTION OF WW STILL WILL POSE THREAT FOR SVR HAIL. MCS AND ITS RELATED GUST FRONT WILL MERGE WITH WRN LIMB OF OK/KS TSTM BAND DISCUSSED BELOW...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND SVR POTENTIAL POSSIBLE FOR NWRN OK. NET RESULT MAY BE LENGTHY CORRIDOR OF NUMEROUS TSTMS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SVR HAIL/GUSTS AND OCNL TORNADO RISK...FROM CENTRAL MO TO TX PANHANDLE. BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...HAS CONSOLIDATED ESSENTIALLY DIAGONALLY ACROSS WW 205 FROM DEWEY/WOODWARD COUNTIES OK ENEWD TO BENTON COUNTY MO. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NNEWD TO COVER MORE OF SRN KS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. EPISODIC MESOCYCLONE INTENSIFICATIONS WILL ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL LOCALLY IN ONE OR TWO PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS. ERN BRANCH OF LLJ WAS EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA AT 30-40 KT ACROSS WRN/NRN OK...AND IS EXPECTED TO VEER GRADUALLY THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SFC. MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT...SAMPLED AS SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S OVER NRN OK...SERN KS AND SWRN MO...WILL SLOW DIABATIC SFC COOLING ENOUGH TO KEEP EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS SFC-BASED FOR TSTM BAND THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. RELATED CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY MINIMIZED MLCINH WAS EVIDENT IN FCST SOUNDINGS AND PLANAR ANALYSES...ALONG WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER SWRN MO TO 2500 J/KG OVER W-CENTRAL/SWRN OK. THIS WILL REMAIN JUXTAPOSED WITH ROUGHLY 50-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. MEAN WIND AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ALIGNED STRONGLY PARALLEL TO MAIN TSTM PLUME...SUGGESTING CONTINUED PREDOMINANCE OF LINEAR MODE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. ..EDWARDS.. 04/30/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 36190315 36420231 36739986 37729925 37689812 37719700 38069492 38569246 37499288 35839557 35659813 35369988 35970001 36190315
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0626.html
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