SPC MD 707

MD 0707 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SERN KS / SWRN-CNTRL-NERN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN KS / SWRN-CNTRL-NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 192254Z - 200000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED OVER THE NEXT HR OR
SO DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCHES FOR PARTS OF FAR SERN
KS AND SWRN MO NEWD INTO NERN MO.

DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF MO IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE PER
THE 20Z SGF RAOB /1600 J/KG MLCAPE/.  THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING /50+ KT/
AND BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES/MESOVORTICES.
DESPITE SOME DECREASE OF DEWPOINTS NOTED OVER SWRN MO INTO THE LOWER
60S DUE TO MIXING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...LOW LEVEL MOIST
ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY THIS
EVENING.  IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER MID LEVEL CONVECTION ALONG THE
KS/MO BORDER CAN ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE NEAR-TERM.  IF
THIS OCCURS...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.  OTHERWISE...A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ONCE STORMS OVER E-CNTRL KS MOVE
INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY THE MO/KS BORDER.  IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO
THREAT...SWATHS OF DMGG WINDS /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ WILL LIKELY
BE THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   37059508 40439345 40409199 39889151 38389179 36609288
            36569436 37059508

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0707.html