SPC MD 741

MD 0741 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259… FOR SERN KS…SWRN MO…NERN OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259...

VALID 070255Z - 070400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW 259 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. STRONG TSTMS SHOULD
PERSIST ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A NEW WW
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE LINE PRESENT ALONG A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM AROUND 40 S OJC TO 20 PNC AS OF 0230Z. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SLYS TO BETWEEN 25-30 KT HAS BEEN NOTED IN
SGF/INX VWP DATA WHICH SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINING TSTMS GIVEN A
PERSISTENT INFLUX OF A CONVECTIVELY UNDISTURBED AIR MASS OVER FAR
SERN KS AND ERN OK CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE
DEW POINTS. STILL...WITH ONLY MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL SWLYS PER THE
NEODESHA KS PROFILER AND ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW PARALLELING
THE FRONT...ALONG WITH WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS LINE
SHOULD STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY. ALTHOUGH A LOCALIZED MICROBURST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT GIVEN A STRONGLY BUOYANT UPDRAFT...THIS THREAT APPEARS
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A NEW WW ISSUANCE.

..GRAMS.. 05/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37059701 37849631 38619485 38679416 37989390 37309407
            36709457 36609491 36519560 36649639 36859688 37059701

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