MD 0792 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR LEE OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 241957Z - 242230Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND HAZARDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING FROM THE RATON MESA TO PERHAPS SWRN KS. A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE. DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAS MITIGATED DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE TSTMS THUS FAR. FARTHER E...THE DRYLINE HAD MIXED INTO FAR WRN KS TO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. MAX SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE CENTERED ALONG THE LEE OF THE CO ROCKIES TO THE DENVER CYCLONE AND INTO NWRN KS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO BACK IN RESPONSE AS SAMPLED BY AMA/GLD VWP DATA. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES...A PLUME OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE NERN TX PANHANDLE TO NWRN OK WILL BE ADVECTED TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER WHETHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUSTAINED ALONG THE DRYLINE...OR WHETHER HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OFF THE MTNS GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES/DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE MOISTURE PLUME. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WHEN THIS OCCURS...WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO VEER WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS/STRENGTHENS. THIS SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 00Z/. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT...BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE. ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/24/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... LAT...LON 37720445 39130319 39890318 40160430 40540453 40840457 41400433 41550391 41610355 41560312 40780215 39550108 38250028 37230054 36820080 36650178 36400318 36190445 36320503 36940509 37720445
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0792.html
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