MD 0799 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252350Z - 260115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF THIS
EVENING. SUCH A THREAT COULD INCLUDE BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A LOW TORNADO RISK.
DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX /POSSIBLY WITH SOME
TRANSITORY SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ IS CENTERED ALONG THE NEB/KS
BORDER VICINITY WEST OF MCCOOK AS OF 2330Z...WITH SOME NORTHEASTWARD
EXPANSION EVIDENT OVER THE PAST HOUR. TOWERING CU IS NOTED IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FARTHER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR IN VICINITY OF THE LEXINGTON-KEARNEY NEB AREAS...WHICH
APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF EXTENSIVE
OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION. IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE FAR
NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB STORMS MAY PERSIST/CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB THIS EVENING...FURTHER
AIDED BY A PROBABLE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EXISTS INTO CENTRAL NEB
COINCIDENT WITH AN ESTIMATED CORRIDOR OF 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.
MIDDLE/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLY WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT
VEERING WIND PROFILES ARE LIKELY RESULTING IN AROUND 30-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/SOME
SUPERCELLS. SHOULD STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE/OCCUR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK CANNOT
BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE AND PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT.
..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 05/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40490132 41160071 41509887 41149816 40329802 40029962
40360009 40490132
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0799.html
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