MD 0811 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NE…FAR NORTHEASTERN CO…AND FAR NORTHWESTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0811
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023
Areas affected...Parts of southwestern NE...far northeastern
CO...and far northwestern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 172344Z - 180115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts possible
during the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...An organized storm cluster is tracking slowly southward
across far southwestern NE, with a risk of large hail and damaging
winds. Latest VWP data shows strengthening northwesterly flow aloft
associated with an approaching midlevel impulse (evident in water
vapor imagery). The strengthening flow aloft atop weak low-level
southerlies is contributing to around 30-40 kt of effective shear.
This, combined with sufficient surface-based pre-convective
instability, should support the maintenance of organized storms
capable of isolated large hail and locally severe gusts during the
next hour or two.
..Weinman/Bunting.. 05/17/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 40400214 40580184 40660159 40700128 40560111 40290098
40010092 39720110 39520131 39420163 39490209 39700226
40140224 40400214
