MD 0818 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0818
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023
Areas affected...western Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 182330Z - 190130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail threat will continue over the next
couple of hours. Trends will continued to be monitored for a
potential watch.
DISCUSSION...Within the Texas Panhandle, deep layer shear around
25-30 kts and MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Within this regime, more
organized supercells have been ongoing across Potter and Dallam
counties in Texas over the last hour. These cells will continue to
pose a severe hail threat (with isolated instances of hail up to
1.25-2 inches) over the next couple of hours before tendency for
upscale growth leads to more mixed mode/clustering. This will also
coincide with increasing CIN and loss of daytime heating. A damaging
wind threat may linger into the evening, as the low level jet
increases to around 30-40 kts across southwestern Texas into the
Texas Panhandle. However, the increasingly stable low-level
thermodynamic profile and modest lapse rates may limit this threat.
Trends will continued to be monitored for a potential watch.
..Thornton/Smith.. 05/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...
LAT...LON 36210285 36460254 36500206 36420144 35950132 35500133
35260143 35110163 35030193 35050221 35160247 35510279
36210285
