SPC MD 819

MD 0819 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NEB PANHANDLE…W-CNTRL NEB…NE CO…NW KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE...W-CNTRL NEB...NE CO...NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271900Z - 272000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS SOON. SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
TSTM INITIATION IS ONGOING ACROSS NE CO AND FAR SW WY AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES SWWD THROUGH THE REGION. AKO /IN NE CO/ RECENTLY
OBSERVED A WIND SHIFT FROM NLY TO ELY COINCIDENT WITH A DEWPOINT
INCREASE FROM 44 TO 58 DEG F AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH.
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS AN ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AS A RESULT. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED SVR STORMS.

PRIMARY THREAT IS SVR HAIL/WIND BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE AN ENHANCED
TORNADO RISK N OF THE SFC LOW IN WRN KS. IN THIS AREA...ELY WIND
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE WWD INTO AN AREA WITH WIND PROFILE
FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADOES. ALL OR PART OF THIS AREA WILL LIKELY NEED
A WW BEFORE 19Z. FARTHER E...THE INITIATION STILL APPEARS TO BE AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS AWAY AS THE CAP REMAINS STRONG.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42320420 42900366 42980217 42950025 41819958 39729977
            38980007 38590095 38570246 39210396 42320420

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0819.html