MD 0823 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF W CENTRAL KS INTO WRN OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W CENTRAL KS INTO WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 272236Z - 280000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM W CENTRAL KS SWD INTO SWRN OK MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS WRN OK -- MUCH OF WHICH IS SHROUDED IN CIRRUS -- THUS HINDERING A CLEAR VIEW OF THE STATE OF CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG MOST OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVING SAID THAT...CU CONTINUES DEVELOPING NWD INTO SWRN OK FROM ONGOING STORMS INVOF CDS...AND SOME HINTS OF DEVELOPMENT ARE ALSO INDICATED NWD INTO KS -- INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM CENTRAL KS SEWD INTO THE ICT AREA. WITH A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT E OF THE DRYLINE AND LOW-LEVEL SLYS OVERLAYED BY MID-LEVEL WSWLYS NEAR 40 KT...SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. THUS -- THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EVIDENT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS W CENTRAL KS INVOF THE WRN FRINGE OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SIGNS OF INCREASED DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD WARRANT WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 05/27/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 38919624 38099617 36929705 34799764 34650008 36629951 38079930 38889969 38919624
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0823.html
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