MD 0837 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN CO THROUGH WRN KS AND SWRN NEB
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO THROUGH WRN KS AND SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 191837Z - 192030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING FROM SERN CO THROUGH WRN KS AND SWRN NEB. DUE TO THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE EVENTS...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NEB SWWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAPID REFRESH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX OVER ERN CO WHICH IS AUGMENTING LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME WHERE 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE EXISTS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE STORMS ARE ROOTED NEAR 800 MB...BUT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE. ..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/19/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40990110 40380040 39040029 37830104 37120259 37160415 37930427 38970237 40630167 40990110
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