MD 0839 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NWRN OK THROUGH CNTRL KS INTO SERN NEB AND SWRN IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0839 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK THROUGH CNTRL KS INTO SERN NEB AND SWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 191936Z - 192100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...INITIAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 21-22Z FROM PARTS OF CNTRL KS INTO ERN NEB. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP A LITTLE LATER FARTHER SOUTH FROM SCNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS ERN NEB SWWD THROUGH WCNTRL KS INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE STRETCHES FROM WRN TX NWD INTO SWRN KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE BASED ON LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...BUT IS STRONGLY CAPPED BY A WARM EML THAT HAS ADVECTED INTO THIS REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING THROUGH WRN KS AND MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE CAP WILL WEAKEN AS THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER ASCENT OVERTAKES THE WRN EDGE OF WARM SECTOR. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE ZONE OF MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT BY 21-22Z MOST LIKELY FROM CNTRL KS THROUGH ERN NEB. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS MODEST WITH UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S PROMOTING LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS. DEEP SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 40-50 KT IN FRONTAL ZONE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...BUT THE RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NWRN OK AFTER 22Z. ..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/19/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 41169518 37579718 36049853 36379943 37629951 38719914 39579882 40199840 40749785 41139737 41859598 41169518
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0839.html
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