SPC MD 847

MD 0847 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233…235… FOR NERN CO/WRN NEB/THE NEB PANHANDLE AND VICINITY


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0847
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO/WRN NEB/THE NEB PANHANDLE AND VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233...235...

VALID 290052Z - 290245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
233...235...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE IN/NEAR WW 235.

DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW 235
AND VICINITY...WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.  THE
STORMS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED CONFINED TO THE WW VICINITY...BUT
SOME HINTS OF EWD ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION IS NOTED.

HIGH-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE AND SPREAD EWD
ACROSS THE WRN NEB VICINITY AS AN MCS.  THE HINTS OF AN EWD SHIFT IN
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY MAY BE THE START OF THAT TREND...AND AS
SUCH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS E OF WW 235 FOR A
POSSIBLE/ADDITIONAL WW.

ONE OTHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE WW COULD OCCUR ACROSS
NWRN KS AND INTO SRN NEB...AS OUTFLOW SHIFTING NWWD FROM ONGOING KS
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORCE ISOLATED/OCCASIONAL NEW STORMS.
THOUGH THE OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING THROUGH A MINIMUM IN
INSTABILITY ATTM...A MUCH MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AREA FARTHER N INTO
NWRN KS COULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW
-- WHICH COULD ALSO SUPPORT THE NEED FOR NEW WW E/SE OF THE EXISTING
WATCH.

..GOSS.. 05/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...
BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39219850 38440063 38550422 40670438 41690432 43330380
            43980358 43830130 43159859 39219850

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