MD 0855 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NW KS…SW NEB…FAR NE CO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS...SW NEB...FAR NE CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291752Z - 291845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH SVR STORMS EXPECTED. PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE
HAIL...SOME GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DAMAGING WINDS.
WW LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM
CNTRL NEB SWWD INTO NE CO WHERE ANOTHER LEE LOW IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NEB
SEWD INTO N-CNTRL KS. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY CONTINUED SLOWLY
SE AND EVENTUALLY STALL WHILE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PULLS
NEWD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES IN ADDITION TO LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TSTMS WITH SVR STORMS EXPECTED.
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY AREA RAOBS...MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED. RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
APPROXIMATELY 1000-2000 MLCAPE ACROSS THE REGION. BULK SHEAR IS
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. STORM MODE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE SLY ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR. A LINEAR MODE IS THE
MOST PROBABLE WITH SVR HAIL...SOME POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT...AND
STRONG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. A TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS N-CNTRL
KS AND S-CNTRL NEB. A WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON.
..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/29/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 39110186 39350217 39760225 40380200 40870179 41280155
41790078 41910000 41729912 41499879 41069861 40239867
39609893 39219936 39170010 39130106 39110186
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0855.html
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