MD 0860 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 240… FOR NE KS….S-CNTRL NEB
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS....S-CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 240... VALID 292024Z - 292130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 240 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS WW 240. ALL SVR THREATS ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND A FEW TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA. TSTMS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL NEB INTO FAR NW KS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF LINEAR ORGANIZATION WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEGUN MOVING NEWD. GIVEN THESE OBSERVATIONS...AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA. 18Z LBF SOUNDING SAMPLED AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. THE SOUNDING ALSO SAMPLED STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD THAN REGIONAL SOUNDING FARTHER S. RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WITH A DECREASE TO 30 KT FARTHER S. SHEAR VECTORS HAVE A SLY ORIENTATION ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...FAVORING A LINEAR MODE. HOWEVER...SHEAR VECTORS VEER FARTHER E...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...COULD FAVOR A FEW DISCRETE CELLS WITH A GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..MOSIER.. 05/29/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 39140159 41790181 41809791 39219786 39140159
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