MD 0867 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN CO…SWRN KS…OK/TX PANHANDLES…NERN NM
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 221906Z - 222030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER SERN CO...NERN NM AND THE WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD E-SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OK PANHANDLE...NRN TX PANHANDLE...AND PORTIONS OF SWRN KS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW IS UNLIKELY. DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER NERN NM INTO SERN CO...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 19Z NEAR 90F. THIS IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS. AS THE HIGH BASED CU ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE /LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS/ OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...AS DEPICTED IN 16Z HRRR. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STORMS WILL OCCUR IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...AND STRONGLY VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. THIS MAY FAVOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA. ..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/22/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 35840428 37070416 37890313 37860168 37280041 36610019 35740087 35170304 35840428
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