MD 0884 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ERN CO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0837 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 240137Z - 240300Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGH SHEAR/VERY LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS. KPUX RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS WHAT ARE LIKELY LOW PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS MOVING E ACROSS E CO. KPUX VAD INDICATES 0-3KM SRH VALUES OVER 600 M2/S2. DESPITE THESE LARGE VALUES...THE VERY LOW CAPE AND DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT VERY LOW. THESE SAME FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT LOW. DCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG EXISTS AROUND THESE STORMS AND PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR 1-2 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. ..MOSIER/HART.. 05/24/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 38120446 38510448 38810432 39440389 39630346 39740272 39550161 38930144 38240155 37830193 37780239 37860279 38120446
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0884.html
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