WW 281 SEVERE TSTM IA KS NE 192025Z – 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IOWA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF TEKAMAH NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KS
ALONG A COLD FRONT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG
HEATING COUPLED WITH FOCUSED UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING THE CAP WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING NWD INTO PARTS
OF NEB. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...AND 30-40 KT SHEAR WILL ENHANCE STORM INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH STRONGER CELLS...AND
PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED PBL WILL PROMOTE SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS WELL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...WEISS
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0281.html
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