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Mesoscale Discussion 1433 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico through portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and into western Kansas and far southwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 072034Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 1 to 2 hours with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. A watch will likely be needed to cover the threat. DISCUSSION...A cold front can be seen clearly on visible satellite imagery, in some places from the presence of surface based cu, but primarily due the large region of smoke present behind the front. The front now extends from far southwest Nebraska across far northwest Kansas to near Raton Mesa. SPC mesoanalysis suggests that CINH has mostly eroded across the region. In addition, in the last 30 minutes more post frontal convection has been observed across eastern Colorado and near the Colorado/Kansas border indicating the deeper ascent is likely spreading eastward and should interact with the front shortly. Also, high-based convection in far northeast New Mexico is starting to show more vertical development as temperatures have risen to near 100 degrees which matches the convective temperature from forecast soundings. This all points toward more widespread thunderstorm development in the next 1 to 2 hours. The stronger storms are expected in western Kansas where instability is greatest (1500 to 2000 J/kg) and where the strongest deep-layer shear is present (40-45 kts). In this region, supercells are expected to congeal into one or more clusters which may pose a damaging wind threat through the evening hours. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely by 21Z. ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/07/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 34820208 35510296 36870298 38560234 39410115 39699964 39549931 38579947 36140083 34820208 |
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