Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1439

   Mesoscale Discussion 1439
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0935 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Kansas....southeastern
   Nebraska....southwestern Iowa...northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...

   Valid 080235Z - 080400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An organized cluster of storms may continue to pose a risk
   for severe wind gusts as it progresses eastward, mainly between the
   Interstate 80 and 70 corridors of the lower Missouri Valley, through
   11 PM-1 AM CDT.  Trends are being monitored for an additional severe
   weather watch east of WW 414.

   DISCUSSION...An evolving cluster of storms continues to become
   better organized with rear inflow intensifying in excess of 50 kt to
   the south of a developing MCV now west of Concordia.  Recent surface
   gusts to 55+ kts have been observed at Concordia and Salina on the
   leading edge of east-northeastward surging convective outflow, with
   forward motion now in excess of 40 kt.  New model output suggest
   that the MCV will track into the Omaha area through 04-06Z, with the
   potential for moist east/southeasterly inflow to maintain vigorous
   convective development as far east as the Kansas City area. 
   Activity may develop as far northeast as Des Moines, if outflow
   associated with warm advection driven storms near the Interstate 80
   corridor, across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa, does not
   interfere.  South of the Interstate 70 corridor, warmer elevated
   mixed-layer air may increasingly tend to suppress thunderstorm
   development.

   ..Kerr.. 08/08/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   41339522 41549468 41669406 41359361 40479368 39409397
               38909535 38819642 38979684 39469663 39809665 40169653
               40649674 41239591 41339522