Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1563

   Mesoscale Discussion 1563
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0617 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

   Areas affected...Western Kansas...northeast Colorado...southwest
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...

   Valid 192317Z - 192345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Increase tornado potential will necessitate a tornado
   watch issuance shortly.

   DISCUSSION...Regional surface observations show rich low-level
   moisture over portions of western Kansas, with upper 60s F dew point
   temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest enlarging hodographs and
   thus low-level shear should increase substantially over the next 1-3
   hours as decoupling and low-level jet onset occurs. Given the rich
   kinematic and thermodynamic environment in place, an increase in
   tornado potential appears likely this evening, which will
   necessitate a small tornado watch issuance shortly.

   ..Karstens.. 08/19/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39170262 38970177 39180075 39950037 41180051 41340169
               41000244 39890271 39170262