Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1838

   Mesoscale Discussion 1838
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas into northwest
   Oklahoma and far northeast Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Outlook upgrade 

   Valid 121929Z - 122000Z

   SUMMARY...An upgrade to Category 4/Moderate risk will be introduced
   in the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook to reflect a greater risk for
   strong tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution/convection allowing model
   guidance consensus has been generally trending upward in the
   intensity and longevity of deep, moist convection over portions of
   the southern High Plains. Potential exists for multiple
   discrete/semi-discrete supercells to develop ahead of a Pacific
   front late this afternoon/evening. These storms are expected to
   progress eastward into an ambient environment characterized by very
   strong low-level shear, resulting in large, curved hodographs and
   effective SRH values exceeding 400 m2/s2, especially across portions
   of southwest KS/northwest OK/far northeast TX Panhandle. Here,
   potential exists for at least a few intense, cyclical tornadic
   supercells to develop, and a long-tracked tornado or two cannot be
   ruled out. As such, portions of the central Plains will be upgraded
   to Category 4/Moderate risk in the upcoming 20Z Day 1 Convective
   Outlook.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/12/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37820131 38210130 38260110 38130068 37789998 37409977
               36969957 36579950 36309955 36119968 35969986 35850027
               35900047 36520078 37820131