Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1841

   Mesoscale Discussion 1841
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0622 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

   Areas affected...eastern Colorado through southwest Nebraska and
   western Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 522...

   Valid 122322Z - 130045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 522 continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to continue a gradual increase in
   intensity next couple hours from northeast CO through southwest NE
   and western KS. All severe hazards are possible including tornadoes,
   large hail and damaging wind.

   DISCUSSION...Early this evening a Pacific cold front is in the
   process of overtaking the dryline across eastern CO. A warm front
   extends from a surface low in northeast CO, southeast through
   western KS. The warm sector is fairly narrow through western KS into
   northeast CO, but dewpoints will continue to rise through the 50s F
   along the strengthening southerly low-level jet. The VWP data
   already indicate 40+ kt southeasterly winds at 1 km. Scattered
   storms are developing across western KS along the warm conveyor belt
   as well as along the front in northeast CO within a corridor of up
   to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. The boundary layer should become more favorable
   for tornadoes this evening as dewpoints continue to increase. Large
   low-level hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear will support
   supercells with low-level mesocyclones. As corridor of deeper ascent
   along the cold front begins to overtake greater low-level moisture,
   storms should eventually evolve into lines later this evening.

   ..Dial.. 10/12/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40760181 38540060 37480085 37350163 38630209 40580283
               41050258 40760181