Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1843

   Mesoscale Discussion 1843
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0856 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

   Areas affected...central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 130156Z - 130300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Line of storms across western KS is expected to persist
   into the overnight through central KS. Damaging wind should be the
   main threat, but at least a couple of tornadoes will also be
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Line of storms from just east of Goodland to west of
   Garden City is moving east at around 35 kt. Embedded organized
   structures continue to be observed. Moisture will continue to return
   northward through the downstream warm sector with dewpoints likely
   to rise into the low 60s F across southern KS and 50s farther north.
   Even with this return of low-level moisture, forecast soundings
   indicate a near-surface stable layer, suggesting inflow to the
   storms will probably remain just above the surface. Northward
   destabilization with time with MUCAPE from 1500-2000 J/KG along with
   large low-level hodographs and strong effective shear will continue
   to support embedded organized storms with damaging wind the main
   threat. However, given degree of effective storm relative helicity,
   at least a couple of tornadoes will remain possible, especially over
   the southern half of KS with any embedded supercells or
   meso-vortices despite the sub-optimal near-surface layer.

   ..Dial/Guyer.. 10/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   37219983 38610012 39829981 39759812 37989800 37199823
               37219983