Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1845

   Mesoscale Discussion 1845
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

   Areas affected...central through south central Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 524...

   Valid 130434Z - 130600Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 524 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will
   persist into the early morning hours across central through south
   central Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...Line of storms with organized structures including
   bowing segments and occasional mesovortices continues through
   central KS at around 40 kt. Latest objective analysis indicates up
   to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and dewpoints continue to rise through the 50s
   F and even lower 60s across southern KS. A weakly stable
   near-surface layer is still evident on forecast soundings, which is
   an overall limiting factor for a more robust tornado threat.
   Nevertheless, very large low-level hodographs with up to 500 m2/s2
   0-1 km storm relative helicity will continue to support some
   potential for occasional mesovortices and a few QLCS tornadoes as
   dewpoints increase a bit further. Otherwise, damaging wind remains
   likely with the stronger more organized storms as activity continues
   east next few hours.

   ..Dial.. 10/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37089974 38369956 39039906 38959761 38049730 37119762
               37089974