Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1846

   Mesoscale Discussion 1846
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of north-central KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525...

   Valid 130554Z - 130730Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts should remain the
   primary threat with storms moving eastward across north-central
   Kansas early this morning.

   DISCUSSION...A north-south oriented line of storms will continue to
   move eastward across north-central KS ahead of a cold front over the
   next couple of hours. Recent VWPs from KUEX and KTWX show very
   strong flow associated with a southerly low-level jet in the 0-3-km
   layer, and 0-1 km shear exceeding 50 kt ahead of the line. Strong
   deep-layer shear associated with an upper trough/low ejecting over
   the High Plains is also present over this region. Given the strength
   of the low-level flow, occasional strong to severe wind gusts from
   convective downdrafts should be the main threat with these storms in
   the short term. The primary limiting factor for a more robust severe
   threat will continue to be the marginal thermodynamic environment.
   Surface temperatures in the mid 60s with dewpoints in the mid 50s
   are yielding only around 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE along and just ahead
   of the line. Convective inhibition also increases markedly into
   northeastern KS per latest mesoanalysis estimates. This suggests
   storms will probably weaken later this morning with eastward extent
   as they outpace the better low-level moisture return occurring
   farther south across central/southern KS.

   ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39269837 39929831 39959685 39229688 39269837